Avalanche forecast

East Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

It remains possible for you to trigger a large avalanche, especially in wind drifted snow at mid and upper elevations.  Evaluate terrain carefully and look for potentially buried weak layers such as buried surface hoar as you travel.  Avoid steep slopes greater than 35 degrees if you observe shooting cracks, hear audible whumphs, or notice recent avalanche activity. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Wind Slabs are becoming more stubborn across the east-south zone. These wind slabs are  1-3 ‘ thick now. You will find these areas of wind drifted snow in all the usual areas (under cornices, lee-sides of ridges, & scattered in the alpine), however you may find them further down slopes and in lower elevation areas due to recent gusty winds.  

    Be observant of the snow you are traveling on and look for signs of recent wind loading.  Fresh cornices, wind rippled snow, pillow-like slabs are all signs of wind blown snow. Cracks shooting out from your machine or feet are a clear indicator that you've found a reactive wind slab. Steer around steep slopes if you observe these signs of wind loaded snow, see shooting cracks, or hear audible whumphs. 

    The neighboring east- central zone has seen a number of recent avalanches failing on deeper buried weak layers (1-2’ deep) - such as buried surface hoar. Consider the consequence of triggering a wind slab that steps-down and produces a larger, more destructive slab avalanche. 

    (12/3/2022)

    If you see shooting cracks like this under you sled or feet, avoid steep wind loaded slopes. 

    Photo: Dallas Glass

Avalanche Discussion

The neighboring east-central zone has observed numerous avalanche observations over the previous day.  These avalanches are failing on a layer of buried surface hoar that was buried on January 4th.  These slabs have generally been 12-18 inches thick.  Similar weather patterns and a similar snowpack structure makes me believe that this avalanche problem may exist across the east-south as well.  Leading up to January 4th, an observation pointed at widespread surface hoar existing on Peaches Ridge, near the Little Naches drainage.  On Tuesday an NWAC forecaster was traveling in the nearby West-South zone in the Morse Creek Drainage (near 410) and found buried surface hoar intact. 

With the lack of recent observations and uncertainty regarding the distribution of this buried surface hoar in the east-south, it will be critical to take a step back and ease into terrain slowly. Be sure to gather snowpack information and look for buried layers before committing yourself to potentially deadly, steep open slopes. 

Wednesday should offer another fairly quiet weather day before a large and potent storm moves in Wednesday evening and into early Thursday. Be on the lookout a large uptick in avalanche hazard for Thursday.   Stay tuned...

If you get out into the East-South, let us know what you see by submitting a public observation. 

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