Avalanche forecast

East Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Overall the danger is low but be on the lookout for isolated pockets of wind-drifted snow where you may still be able to trigger an avalanche. Use caution in alpine terrain and assess conditions before committing to high-consequence slopes. Avoid these textured, pillowlike slabs if you see signs of unstable snow, such as shooting cracks.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–1.5

    Despite continued winds, there is little snow left to transport onto lee aspects, and recently formed wind slabs are gaining strength and will likely be difficult to trigger. However, where these slabs formed over slick crusts in alpine terrain, you could find isolated locations where you could still trigger an avalanche. Any avalanches would likely be small and isolated to steep terrain features at high elevations, but even small avalanches could have high consequences in extreme terrain. Features such as steep ridgelines, confined chutes, and the base of cliffs are probable locations to trigger one of these avalanches. Wind slabs can be identified by textured snow surfaces, actively blowing snow, and rounded pillowlike drifts. You can also use quick hand pits to identify stiff wind-deposited snow over softer layers. If stiff snow slides easily in hand pits or you observe signs of unstable snow such as shooting cracks, steer around steeper, more consequential features.

    (12/30/2022)

    Example of long shooting cracks in a fresh wind slab. These long cracks are bullseye information of unstable wind slabs.

    Photo: Rob Pollard

Avalanche Discussion

Temperatures will moderate further toward seasonal norms on Tuesday. Cloud cover should mostly keep any wet loose avalanche activity minimal, but if the sun does poke out, look for rollerballs or pinwheels to indicate wet loose avalanches are possible. 

The last significant storm in the East Central area was over MLK weekend. This warm storm buried the 1/4 layer of surface hoar and created a now easily identifiable melt-freeze crust in the snowpack. While we are still tracking the 1/4 surface hoar layer, it is unlikely you could find a location to trigger an avalanche on this layer beneath the MLK crust. Subsequent small storms have since buried The MLK crust 1-2 feet deep in most areas. A thin layer of weak, faceted snow exists just above the MLK crust. So far, it has not proved reactive, but that could change with additional loading events. Significant wind events have also occurred, and observations from higher-elevation exposed terrain indicate stiff wind-affected surfaces on most aspects. The sun has also been a strong player for the last few days, and thick, icy crusts now exist on southern aspects. An observer reported a natural wind slab avalanche on a WSW aspect above 7000ft in the Icicle Creek Drainage that likely occurred overnight on 1/28-1/29. While this is presumably a result of rapid loading due to the strong winds, it is a notable avalanche and should be on your radar if traveling on these steep lee slopes with slick sun crusts.All these variable and potentially icy surfaces now have just a few inches of snow on top. So you can expect challenging travel conditions out there, consider bringing appropriate equipment to travel safely on steep icy terrain.

Regions covered