Avalanche forecast

Turnagain Pass and Girdwood

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired last year. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

An incoming storm will bring strong winds and snowfall starting this afternoon. Human triggered avalanches on buried weak layers 1-2' deep are likely, especially on Seattle Ridge and the north end of Turnagain Pass. Fresh wind slabs up to a foot deep will be forming at upper elevations as the storm starts to impact the area. We expect avalanche danger to rise rapidly tonight as buried weak layers are loaded by new snow and wind. 

__________________________________________

SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS:

TODAY Thursday, Feb. 27 at the Breeze Inn Hotel in Seward from 6:00 to 7:30 pm. Join forecaster Mik Dalpes to talk about the state of the snowpacks, mapping resources, and how to interpret stability tests. More info here.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    As the winds pick up this afternoon a fresh batch of wind slabs up to a foot deep will be forming at upper elevations. These can form very quickly and become sensitive to the weight of a skier or rider. Keep an eye out for active wind loading, shooting cracks, and hollow pillows of snow to identify areas with fresh wind slabs. Using test slopes to check how sensitive wind slabs are to the weight of a skier or rider is a great way to assess them before entering more consequential terrain. 

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2.5

    In areas that received greater amounts of new snow in the past week, like Seattle Ridge and the north end of Turnagain Pass, human triggered avalanches 1-2' deep on buried weak layers are likely. There have been many human triggered avalanches on these buried weak layers in the past week, luckily with no significant repercussions. As the weather turns stormy this afternoon with strong winds and heavy snowfall, the likelihood of avalanches on these buried weak layers will increase. This avalanche problem is likely to become much more widespread in the coming days if the storm produces significant snowfall across the forecast area and adds load onto buried weak layers that have previously been shallowly buried. 

    Persistent weak layers often provide little feedback in terms of red flags and are not always triggered by the first person on a slope. Avalanches releasing on lower angle slopes than normal and remote triggering are common. We recommend a patient and conservative mindset when dealing with persistent weak layers. Sticking to lower angle slopes is the best way to avoid this problem. You can assess the distribution of the weak layers using hand pits or snow pits, but the snowpack is highly variable. Just because you don't see the layers in one pit doesn't mean you are in the clear.

    Cornices will become more likely to fail as they start to get wind loaded again this afternoon with the incoming storm system. 

    Glide avalanches are still a concern across the forecast area. Try to avoid spending time underneath glide cracks to limit your exposure to this unpredictable hazard. 

Regions covered