Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

The pattern of large to very large natural and triggered avalanches since our blockbuster storm ended demonstrates that the snowpack is still struggling. You are most likely to trigger a large and deadly avalanche on steep slopes facing west, north, east, or on southeast aspects at higher elevations.  Simpler, smaller, and lower-angle terrain with a deep, uniform snowpack is safer than steep complex terrain with variable snow depths and consequential hazards.   

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3.5

    Weak facets and collapsible crusts are widespread on the northern half of the compass and on some sunnier aspects at high elevations.  Recently formed slabs on top of these weak layers average 2 feet thick in wind-sheltered terrain. Slabs are thicker and harder in wind drifted terrain and can step down through older slabs to the ground.    This problem is easy to trigger in some shallower areas, and in deeper areas, it may require hitting a thin spot on the slope, such as near buried rocks, trees, or where slabs thin from wind effects. Avalanches can break widely across multiple terrain features and be remotely triggered from flat terrain near or below steep slopes without warning signs. The problem is less common on south and southwest aspects, and can be avoided on slope angles consistently less than about 30 degrees.  

    These destructive persistent slabs ran sometime around February 18th or 19th on Schuylkill Ridge.  

Avalanche Discussion

With minimal wind drifting in the past 48 hours, we should see the pattern of large to very large naturals wind down. This video shows highlights from earlier this week.  We can't rule out the isolated potential from a random cornice fall.  As a warming trend develops this weekend and into early next week, warming-related releases may become a concern from wet loose step-downs, cornice falls, or other processes within the snowpack.   Human triggering varies from reactive in shallower areas (ex. Cement Creek, West Brush Creek) to stubborn in deeper areas (ex. Upper Slate).  From a region-wide perspective, slabs are easiest and "likely" to trigger in the Southeast Mountains and harder or "possible" to trigger in the Northwest Mountains, though I suspect there is some crossover there.  Regardless of likelihood, the potential size (D2 to D3.5) drives our travel advice and danger for now as our problematic snowpack continues to oh-so-gradually adjust.  We have documented 166 avalanches since the start of the Cupid Crusher storm; you can explore patterns here.

We are heartbroken to report a snowboarder from Crested Butte was killed by a widely propagating hard slab avalanche in the Northern San Juan Mountains yesterday, similar to the type of avalanche you can trigger here.  Our deepest condolences go out to the friends, family, our CB community, and all those involved in the rescue for this tragic loss.

Regions covered