Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired 5 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Generally safe avalanche conditions exist and the avalanche danger is LOW on all aspects and at all elevations. Natural and human-triggered avalanches are unlikely but not impossible.  Upper elevation northerly aspects is where you can find dense slabs on top of weak faceted snow near the ground.  Although unlikely to trigger a persistent slab avalanche, the consequences would be high if you did.  Avoid likely trigger points on the margins of the slab, near rock outcrops, and steep convex rolls.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    Triggering a persistent slab avalanche remains unlikely but not impossible. Dense slabs from the end of December storms rest on top of facets/depth hoar near the ground on upper elevation northerly aspects.  It's been over two weeks since the last significant loading event and natural avalanche cycle. Faceted snow near the ground has been gaining strength and healing.  Most extended column tests are not producing propagating failures and obvious signs of instability like cracking and collapsing haven't been observed in a while.   All indications are pointing to this persistent weak layer being dormant for now until we get another significant loading event. It's areas where the overall snowpack is thinner that you'd be more likely to impact these faceted weak layers near the ground.  Avoid likely trigger points typically found on the margins, near rock outcrops, or on steep convex rolls. 

    Shallow snowpacks on northerly aspects are where you're more likely to impact faceted layers near the ground. 

Avalanche Discussion

It was a big swing and miss with this latest system as it stayed to our east and north and January continues to remain warm and dry for us here in the southwest.  It should be a pleasant weekend with sunny skies and light winds.  With that, the avalanche danger will remain status quo at LOW for the time being as we wait for the next storm system potentially Tuesday evening. Even during times of Low danger continue to practice safe travel protocols. Only expose one person at a time on steeper slopes, having an escape route while recreating on steep slopes. Select a safe location away from runout zones to congregate with your group and maintain good communication with your travel partners throughout the day.

The only avalanches observed over the last few days were very small loose snow avalanches in steep terrain from the couple of inches that fell overnight on Wednesday.  Over the last two-plus weeks of high pressure, the snow surface has seen changes from warm temperatures, winds, sun, and diurnal temperatures swings.  East, west, and south aspects have varying thicknesses of crusts from the warm temperatures and sun.  Strong winds last week have created stout wind crusts in the alpine, that range from supportable to breakable and wind-sheltered northerly aspects have loose faceted snow in the top 20cm.  These northerly aspects are where you'll find the best riding conditions with "recycled" powder.  In steep terrain on these slopes be aware of "sluffs" as I was finding I could easily push to the top foot of this cohesionless snow down the slope that could be troublesome in consequential terrain.  Looking ahead to the future, these surface layers will become important if and when we get our next significant snowstorm. 

   

Regions covered