Avalanche forecast

Soldier & Wood River Valley Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

You're likely to trigger a 1.5-2.5 foot thick avalanche on many slopes. Wind-drifted terrain is the most dangerous, but you could also trigger a slide in sheltered areas. Avalanches may be triggered remotely—from gentler terrain above, below, and to the sides of steep slopes.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    What is it?  1.5-2.5 foot thick slabs overlie persistent weak layers (sugary facets, surface hoar, or crusts) on most aspects and elevations. Recently wind-loaded slopes with stiffer snow in the top couple of feet of the snowpack are most likely to produce large avalanches, but slopes sheltered from the wind are also suspect.

    Where is it?  The weak layer exists at all elevations, but slabs become thicker and stiffer as you climb in elevation. Shadier aspects contain the ugliest faceted layers. While the snowpack remains quite weak at lower elevations, some slopes are currently lacking the cohesive slab component of the avalanche equation (weak layer + slab + steep slope). 

    How can you recognize it?  You're likely to experience snowpack collapsing or cracking while traveling. These red flags are obvious signs of instability. Wind-loaded areas feel stiffer under your skis or sled and are more supportable; these areas are especially dangerous. The weak layers plaguing us are easy to identify when you dig a quick hole in the snow.             

    How can you manage it?  Sadly, avoiding slopes steep enough to slide is the only surefire way to manage this problem.Persistent slab avalanches are tricky. You could trigger them remotely (from gentler terrain above, below, and to the sides of steep slopes—explanatory video here) and they may break wider than expected or higher on the slope above you. 

    (12/7/2022) Skiers triggered this avalanche (on the far ridge, photo right) in the Lake Ck Drainage north of Ketchum. On descent near the older slide (foreground, photo left) they reported hearing/feeling a whumpf followed by the sound of the avalanche release. 

    Photo: A. Sevcik

Avalanche Discussion

Yesterday, I rode out Baker Ck and toured up Fox Pk in the Soldier and Wood River Valley Zone. For the most part, I utilized well-traveled snowmobile trails and skin tracks and never felt a single collapse. In my mind, I thought "hmm, this is misleading..." because I knew what to expect as soon as I left the trail or extended a switchback. Sure enough, hopping off my sled to dig a quick handpit revealed an incredibly weak snowpack. I observed this setup over and over again throughout the day. As I skinned to the top of Fox Pk, I wrapped around into undisturbed snow on its SE and E faces, producing collapses every 50' or so. "That's more like it," I thought.

I couldn't shake the thought of how easy it could have been for someone to follow the well-worn path to Fox Pk and decide to ski steep terrain, forgetting or simply ignoring the glaring red flags we're seeing across the forecast area. Over the past week, nearly every observation reported an avalanche, cracking or collapsing.

I wish I could tell you that this problem is substantially improving, but I can't. SAC staff still expect to be able to remotely trigger an avalanche and plan their tours with that possibility in mind. The good news? You can still enjoy a safe day in the mountains if you plan accordingly. The snowpack is fairly supportable in many areas, making for fast, enjoyable turns on lower-angled slopes. At lower elevations near Ketchum, Hailey, and Carey, W-S-SW aspects had very little snow cover prior to the big early December storm. There, the persistent weak layers are less worrisome. 

Special thanks to those sending in all the great observations!  We've received several over the last week. They are a great way to let others know what you're seeing and they improve our forecasts.

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