Avalanche forecast

Avalanche forecast

Payette Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Riders and skiers are triggering slab avalanches large enough to bury or kill a person, these avalanches are spreading out, and are 2-3 feet deep failing on buried surface hoar in wind-sheltered areas, mostly on East and North East aspects. 

Use caution on all slopes steeper than 30 degrees and watch for signs of drifting and red flags in exposed terrain as recent winds out of the South/Southwest formed slabs that avalanched naturally in places and may be reactive to the weight of a person or machine.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Yesterday, near Concil Mountain, we observed test pits with poor structure in the upper 2 feet of the snowpack which had a couple of layers of buried surface hoar that were failing moderately to hard in compression, but not propagating in an extended column. Kevin and I investigated a snowmobile-triggered avalanche not far from our pit location and got similar test results, but had a propagation saw test propagate after less than half a cut (PST45/100 END) near the crown of the avalanche. The buried surface hoar was visible on the bed surface of the avalanche.

    While this problem likely exists on East and Northeast aspects in wind-sheltered terrain, it begs for increasing your margin of error and maintaining good travel protocols, and ensuring that all of your group is wearing a transceiver, shovel, and probe on their person.

    (2/6/2023)

    Looking at a snowmobile rider triggered avalanche on a NE aspect just North of Council Mtn 

    Photo: KS

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    South and Southwest winds have formed slabs over the last few days and have naturally avalanched on East and Northeast slopes near ridgelines and cornices.

    The winds are not going to stop and are forecasted to gust upwards of 30 MPH today and tonight at around 40 MPH along with 3-6 inches of new snow!

    Watch for signs indicating which way the wind has blown the snow and turn around if you see red flags like cracking in the surface and hearing whumphing noises in the snow.

    (2/6/2023) Photo: GH

    Natural wind slab avalanche evidence was abundant on Council Mountain from the recent storm on Eastern and Northern aspects

Avalanche Discussion

This forecast is sponsored by Franklin Building Supply on Highway 55 just North of McCall. Thank You for supporting the PAC!

Yesterday was an active day for human-triggered avalanches in the backcountry and both Tamarack and Brundage ski areas reported getting results with explosives and ski cuts in wind-affected and sheltered terrain.

Use caution in wind-sheltered and wind-loaded terrain. Buried surface hoar is not much of a problem in most places as the wind has destroyed it prior to this weekend's storm, but where it has remained intact it can spread out and catch you by surprise.  Unfortunately, the duration and exact location of this problem will be difficult to assess, so bump up your caution on all slopes steep enough to slide, especially near terrain traps like gullies, cliffs, and trees where a small avalanche can hurt you big-time!