Avalanche forecast

Stevens Pass

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Out of date — this forecast expired 7 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Dangerous wet snow avalanche conditions will persist as temperatures continue to rise. You could easily trigger avalanches in heavy, wet snow on steep terrain, or it may slide unexpectedly from above. Stick to traveling on low angle terrain and don't linger beneath large snow-covered rocks or gullies where wet snow may flow from above 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    The rain will taper off, but temperatures will continue to rise. With cloudy skies overnight, we also don't expect much of a surface crust to form. This means the snow will remain heavy, wet, and weak. It's possible that the full menu of wet avalanche problems is on the table for Tuesday. If you're sinking deeply into wet snow, you could easily trigger wet loose avalanches on steep slopes.

    Rock slabs or cornice falls can shed large blocks of snow from overhead. Wet avalanches that initiate at higher elevations may funnel through gullies into lower elevations. With crusts and previous weak interfaces in the upper snowpack, there is even a chance for wet slab avalanches. While these are less likely, they are much more unpredictable.

    Wet snow problems come with significant uncertainty, so let the snowpack adjust to these tropical temperatures. Stack the odds in your favor by sticking to low-angle terrain and limiting time spent under rock slabs or gullies.

    (1/12/2026)

    A natural wet loose avalanche (size D1.5) on Lichtenberg Mtn. This occurred late night/early AM Jan 11-12. SE, 4,400ft

    (WL-N-D1.5-O)

    Photo: Josh Hirshberg

Avalanche Discussion

There is a chance of very light rain on Tuesday morning, but the trend will be toward drier and, unfortunately, warmer weather.  High, thin clouds may slightly reduce solar input, but even those clouds will be on their way out by Tuesday evening. 

About 1.4" of rain was recorded at Stevens Pass in the past 24 hours. NWAC forecasters in the zone on Monday reported a widespread natural wet avalanche cycle. Most avalanches were large, and some ran long distances, gouging through much of the recent storm snow.

Approximately 3-3.5' of snow rests over the January 3rd melt-freeze crust. While the overlying snow had generally been well-bonded to the crust, avalanche observations during the storm proved otherwise. A few notable deep avalanches did or were likely to have failed on this crust. Even as the rain stops, the continued warm temperatures may cause wet slabs to fail at this interface. Wet slab activity tends to be delayed, but the timing is very hard to forecast. If they occur at all, the tipping point may be continued warming and sun on Tuesday or Wednesday.

There are a few other crusts in the snowpack that serve as good markers. About  1 foot below the January 3rd crust is a thin December 24th crust, which can be found up to 5500ft. A stout crust from December 18th, should now be near the lower third of the snowpack. 

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