Northern New Mexico

Heightened avalanche danger exists on specific terrain features at upper elevations.  On northerly, easterly, and some westerly terrain, consistent moderate winds over the last week have maintained stiffer and more cohesive slabs near the surface.  These slabs are sitting on top of very weak faceted snow and depth hoar, a setup that can still be reactive to human travels today.  Cracking and collapsing are indicators that you've found this strong-over-weak setup, but you may not get these obvious signs until it's too late.  Take the extra time to dig down and look for this unstable snowpack structure before committing to riding avalanche terrain.

We sure are looking forward to some more beautiful, clear weather today.  It's been nearly a week since the Janaury 23rd/24th storm but there are still plenty of good soft turns out there, especially on sheltered and shady terrain.  Temperatures have been a lot more representative of a typical January in our region, keeping the snow loss at bay and helping to recycle the snow near the surface.  Even more solar aspects continue to hold decently soft snow at the surface, as there's been periodic cloud cover throughout the week helping to keep crust formation to a minimum.  With all that said, it's still a shallow and variable snowpack with depths ranging between 1 and 4 feet with most places worth traveling sitting in the 2-3 foot range.  Ground hazards remain an issue, and many of them are hidden just below the surface, so keep that in mind if you're skiing or riding.

Avalanche danger has eased significantly since the last storm when we saw touchy conditions develop all over the place, and today the risk all comes down to the slabs in the upper portions of the snowpack and where they are lingering.  There is abundant weak snow on aspects that have held snow since late November -- that hasn't changed.  But the slabs that formed last weekend have changed over the last five days.  In areas below treeline, the slabs have deteriorated significantly and you'll find it easy to sink into the early season facets and depth hoar as you travel.  Persistent slab avalanches are definitely unlikely in these areas, but be careful of small pockets releasing and gouging downslope if you're traveling in steep, open and exposed terrain below treeline.  Near and above treeline, the story is a bit different: consistent moderate winds over the last five days have maintained stiffer and more cohesive slabs on leeward aspects and cross-loaded terrain features, while on other slopes the slabs have lost much of their ability to react.  In some upper elevation spots, we're starting to observe hard slabs that are capable of propagating widely and breaking well above you.  Any and all of these slabs are sitting on top of incredibly weak snow that's easy to impact as a skier, rider, or on foot, so it's important to do your due diligence and know what you're up against before committing to big terrain.  You can accomplish this by keeping a close eye on the changing suportability of the snow underfoot and the stiffness of the slab at the surface.  Take an honest step back if you're finding a strong-over-weak snowpack structure, getting easy propagation in long column tests, or seeing any obvious evidence of instability like cracking or collapsing. 

There's some decent hope in the weather models for another big storm arriving February 10th or so.  The system developing during the middle of next week looks diminished for us as of this morning, but we shouldn't rule out the possibility of getting a couple inches just yet!  Enjoy the nice weather this weekend and as always, stay safe out there.