Avalanche forecast

Lizard-Flathead

Feb 23 – 24, 2017Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Sat
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Recent storm slabs may take another day to settle and bond to the old surface. Avoid slopes below cornices.

Avalanche problems

  • Cornices

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–3
    Fresh cornice growth may be large and fragile. Cornice falls may release storm slabs, or step down to deeply buried weak layers resulting in large avalanches.

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–3
    Deep storm slabs (50-60cm) may take some time to settle and bond to the old surface. This problem may linger in areas with a hard rain crust below the storm snow.

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–4
    There have been two natural deep persistent slab releases in the past few days in the Lizard range. Both of these avalanches were on northeast aspects in the alpine, and released to size 3.0 or larger.

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

Tonight: Overcast with a chance of flurries, light southwest winds, and -15 in the alpine. Friday: Broken skies with periods of flurries, light westerly winds, and alpine temperature -15. Saturday: Mix of sun and cloud with moderate southwest winds and alpine temperatures -10. Sunday: Overcast with 3-5 cm of snow, light east winds and alpine temperatures -10.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches reported. There was a report on Tuesday of a natural avalanche size 3.5 on Mt Hosmer on an East aspect at 2100 metres that appears to have released on or stepped down to the weak deep persistent layer of sugary facets near the ground. On Wednesday we had a report of a size 3.0 avalanche on "Big Steep Mother" bowl on a northeast aspect at 2100 metres in the alpine in the Lizard range. This avalanche appears to have been started by a cornice fall that released a storm slab that then "stepped down" to deeply buried weak facets.

Snowpack Summary

There is now 50-60 cm of storm snow that is expected to settle into a storm slab. This slab sits above a thick rain crust below 1900 m and a generally well settled snowpack. Isolated basal weaknesses may still exist in shallow snowpack areas. These weak areas appear to be on north-northeast aspects in the alpine. If the winds shift direction over the next few days, watch for new wind loading on south-west aspects.

Regions covered