Avalanche forecast

East Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The snowpack still needs time. Wet avalanches are incredibly tough to predict and manage, so continue to avoid steep slopes that hold sloppy, wet snow until the weather cools down. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    The snowpack is still sketchy and needs time after coming out of a wet and warm period with a persistent weak layer present. Water will continue to flow deeper into the snowpack, making for another dangerous day on steep slopes at middle and upper elevations.  These wet avalanches will break 2-4 ft deep and could propagate widely taking out most of the season's snowpack. 

    Wet slabs and wet loose will be the most common avalanche types you may see, but don’t ignore large brown frowns most commonly known a glide cracks, either. Glide avalanches are unpredictable and can be incredibly destructive once they release. 

    These wet avalanches could pack a punch, so give steep open slopes that hold sloppy snow a wide berth.

    (1/29/2024)

    An example of a wet slab avalanche from Mission Ridge a few days ago. 

    WS-ASu-D3-R4-O/G

    Photo: Matt Primomo

Avalanche Discussion

On Wednesday, East South snotel sites reported up to .50 inch of rain. Fortunately, precipitation should start tapering, and snow levels will slowly drop and sit comfortably at 6000 ft through the day on Thursday. Cooling temperatures will help the snowpack stabilize, but it still needs time - especially since we had a notoriously weak snowpack leading into this warm-up.

On Sunday, NWAC forecasters traveled into the S. Fork Manatash Creek Drainage and found widespread evidence of the recent warming and subsequent wet avalanche cycle. Wet loose avalanches were widespread, and they found an older slab avalanche that likely ran on a persistent weak layer earlier this month. A snow profile at 6200ft on a northerly aspect revealed a mostly dry snowpack. Although evidence of pooling on lower interfaces means drainage channels had formed, this only allows water impact and weaken a layer of faceted snow and surface hoar above the Solstice Crust. This problematic layer showed a likelihood for propagation in a snowpack test and has been the layer involved in widespread wet slab avalanches throughout East Central and East South. This is a good reminder that the prolonged warming has only prolonged the instability of these weak layers. Human-triggered large to very large wet slabs at Mission Ridge and near Stevens Pass are indications that even as natural avalanche activity decreases, you can still trigger one of these destructive avalanches. 

If you get out, let us know what you see by submitting a public observation!

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