Avalanche forecast

Mount Shasta

Mount Shasta Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Today, dangerous avalanche conditions will develop across the forecast region. Climbers and riders should be wary of lurking wind slabs in high alpine terrain and the increasing threat of wet-loose avalanches on steep solar-lit slopes that are experiencing warming. Observe for shooting cracks, visibly wind loaded terrain, and signs of increasing wet snow instabilities. Avoid traveling on steep slopes during the heat of the day, and change aspects to help mitigate this problem. 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Exceedingly warm temperatures, accompanied by clear skies and a high April sun angle, will bring about dangerous wet-loose avalanche conditions. Natural avalanches are most likely on solar-lit slopes near and above treeline. There is potential for large amounts of snow to become unglued today. A poor overnight refreeze has left snow surface on southerly aspects particularly vulnerable. As the sun emerges and temperatures soar, surfaces will rapidly warm and begin to lose cohesion. Steep-exposed slopes are most prone to rapid warming due to a more direct sun angle. For instance, near and above treeline will be the first to experience warming. For this reason, plan to be off of very steep terrain before significant warming occurs and identify areas of concern like terrain traps. Mother Nature will give you clear warning signs of rising instability. Observe for point releases, pinwheels, and wet snow surfaces that exceed the height of your boot cuff. Be cautious near rock outcroppings, as these can expedite the radiative heating processes of the surrounding snow. Wet-loose avalanches can start small but quickly grow in size and run far distances. Anticipate where wet snow will want to slide and micromanage your aspect choice to help mitigate your risk.   

    (3/31/2024)

    Skier Triggered Wet Loose

    Photo: Samuel Clairmont

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Most recently, winds have blown from a northeast direction and loaded many leeward W-SW-S-SE aspects above treeline. Northerly aspects may still harbor wind slabs from a previous storm cycle. Approach the alpine with caution and observe for shooting cracks, lens-shaped surfaces, and stiff slabs of snow displaying poor bonding capabilities. Many alpine panels and depressions have been cross-loaded. Likely trigger points exist near scoured or exposed areas where the snowpack is thinner, or along steep convex rollovers. Even a small slide can have consequential outcomes if caught off guard and in extreme terrain. 

    (4/1/2024)

    Cross loaded panels in the alpine below Sargents Ridge 

    Photo: Eric Falconer

  • Cornices

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Large cornices adorn many ridgelines and predominantly overhang leeward west, north, and east facing slopes. Yesterday at Castle Lake, a natural cornice collapse was observed, which would have resulted in death or serious injury if someone was caught. Give these hazards the respect and space they deserve. Today's sun and warm temperatures will continue to weaken existing cornices. Riders should avoid venturing near or below large cornices, as they can brake suddenly and further back than expected. A cornices fall has the potential to trigger an avalanche on the underlying slope, resulting in a much more significant and traumatic event.

    A large natural cornice fall at Castle Lake of northward facing slope.

    Photo: Eric Falconer

Avalanche Discussion

Today, the forecast region will experience its warmest day yet. Enjoy it, but don't let your desires draw you into unsafe situations. It's springtime, but the weather is quickly going to revert to winter. Be ready for this and the changing conditions that come with it.    So far, Mount Shasta is above average in snowpack, and we still have the entire months of April and May, where anything is possible.   If you're curious to know more about what conditions are like on Mount Shasta you can view THIS observation taken yesterday from above treeline. 

Regions covered