Avalanche forecast

Eastside Region

Eastern Sierra Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Avalanche danger is expected to rise to CONSIDERABLE by late this afternoon in areas receiving more snowfall. Avalanches will be larger and more reactive as you gain elevation and move into wind-affected terrain. These are most likely near ridgelines and on the side of mid-slope features like gullies, rollovers, and couloirs where wind has deposited the snow. Drifts, dunes, and wind-sculpted snow surfaces are signs the wind has been at work. Cracks shooting out from your skis or board are a sign you've found an unstable slab. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    With winds starting out strong and dropping to more moderate loading speeds as the storm rolls in, wind-deposited snow will be your primary concern today. These can start out soft — with less warning signs such like cracking and sounding holllow — before becoming stiffer as more snow is blown. Expect these to increase in size and reactivity as you climb higher in elevation and wrap around to loaded aspects. Be on the lookout for drifts, dunes, and pillows on the downhill side of ridgelines and mid-slope features such as groups of trees and convex rolls. Cracks shooting out from your skis or board are a sign you've found an unstable slab. 

    (11/26/2024) Photo: Eastern Sierra Avalanche Center

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Temperatures during the storm are largely slated to start out warm, and end cool — the recipe for a right-side-up new dose of snow. This being said, with up to 10 inches of snow falling up high, expect the potential to trigger avalanches in the new snow in protected areas. Expect slab size, reactivity, and likelihood for sluffs to increase throughout the day as more snow accumulates. Snowfall rates will intensify throughout the day, reaching up to 3 inches per hour. These instabilities will be most likely in areas protected from the wind, such as on treed slopes and at mid and lower elevations.

Avalanche Discussion

A winter storm starts late this morning and is expected to bring up to 10 inches to the most favored parts of the Sierra Crest by late afternoon. Danger rising throughout the day is certain with the incoming storm. While danger is LOW as this is being written at 6:00 am, expect avalanche hazard to rise to CONSIDERABLE by late afternoon in parts of our forecast area receiving the most snowfall.  10 inches of snow and up to 0.8 inches of water can create dangerous avalanche conditions — however, it's worth noting weather products have had a bias towards overforecasting precipitation and underforecasting wind in our zone. While danger will still rise throughout the storm in areas receiving less snowfall, expect the snowpack to be less reactive and for avalanches to be smaller. 

Before the snowfall begins, our snowpack is generally stable. What's the new snow about to fall on? Surfaces are a mixed bag ranging from wind-scoured, textured, and wind-packed in more exposed areas to an assortment of melt-freeze crusts on solars, along with rain crusts up to 9300'. On some very protected northerlies, faceted soft surfaces exist. While the new snow will have a range of abilities to bond to these surfaces, new/old snow interfaces are most likely to become problematic in areas with faceted surfaces like Virginia Lakes, or in zones where rain has made crusts more slick and uniform at mid and lower elevations. 

While storm totals leave us with some uncertainty, we can count on avalanches being larger and more reactive both in areas receiving more snowfall, and as you gain elevation and wrap to more loaded aspects. Wind slab development is our real concern today, with winds dropping to perfect loading speeds as snowfall rates increase to up to 3 inches per hour midday. While there is the potential for storm slab development at mid and lower elevations, the storm will likely come in right-side-up and produce decent skiing and riding conditions — thanks Santa. 

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