Avalanche forecast

Togwotee Pass

Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
No rating
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Highlights

New snowfall and warming weather make natural and human-triggered avalanches likely today. Similar conditions over the past weeks have produced avalanches. Stability will deteriorate faster on very steep, sunny slopes first, but will not be limited to these areas. Triggering a very large avalanche on weak snow buried deeply in the snowpack also remains possible on more shaded, cooler slopes at middle and upper elevations. Triggering these avalanches becomes more likely during times of weather change.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Togwotee Pass has received 6-10 inches of snowfall over the past 24 hours, favoring toward the Divide's east side. Winds throughout the storm and into today will remain light and northerly. Yesterday on Angle Mountain, I observed a variety of smaller avalanches failing within the newest snowfall. Various crusts and weak interfaces also exist within the top three feet of the snowpack and will be more prone to human triggering over the next several days as skies start to clear and temperatures increase. As the day heats up, more slopes will become unstable. The new snowfall may not be wet or mushy; giving solar slopes a wide margin as skies clear and the day warms today will give you a wider buffer with the newest snowfall and the probability of triggering a larger, deeper avalanche (problem #2 below). If sinking into a mushy snowpack, find cooler snow or stick to lower-angle slopes. Pack it in early and give yourself options, including safer, low-angled options and exits not threatened from above by cornices or steep sunny slopes.

    Wet loose avalanche activity isolated to the newest snowfall will also be likely today, but these avalanches should remain shallow and fairly small. Avoid very steep slopes that face the sun, especially those above terrain traps. 

     

    (3/31/2024)

    This storm slab was observed yesterday in the Salt River Range. Similar conditions are expected in the Togwotee area today.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Triggering a persistent slab avalanche is possible on weak snow buried 2-4 feet deep. The weak, sugary snow exists across all elevations and aspects except middle-elevation southerlies. The most probable areas to trigger a persistent slab avalanche include steep, rocky, and wind-affected slopes on the north half of the compass. These areas contain thin, shallow spots where riders can more easily impact weak layers. Shallower snow is also found east of the continental divide and south towards the Gros Ventre Range. Previous tracks on a slope are not an indicator of stability. Use caution in steep terrain and give yourself a wide margin of error on slopes with high consequences or near terrain traps. Move to low-angle terrain to avoid this problem. 

    The last known persistent slab avalanche occurred on 3/16 in Upper Deception Creek. A wet slab avalanche failing on these persistent weak layers occurred on 3/19 on Breccia.

    (3/28/2024)

    Total snowpack from Jules Bowls. 10,000' on a NE aspect. 125cm total height. The weak snow at the base is clearly visible.

    Photo: Cameron Galt

Avalanche Discussion

It's been a wild ride of a season! Over the past two weeks, our mountains have slowly but surely picked up ~2' of new snow. Cold storm temperatures have produced uncharacteristically light powder—it's felt more like February than March lately. The snowpack at Togwotee has slowly gotten deeper but has yet to rid itself of its very large avalanche problem involving what I would call "a literal ton" of weak snow near the base of the snowpack. Today, be prepared to shift your mindset as you head out and dial back your ambitions through the day. Skies clear, and warming temperatures start to change the surface snow. These conditions can rapidly change light, friendly, and loose snowfall into more of a cohesive slab. The only way to guarantee layers of weak snow won't be an issue is to avoid the terrain where they exist. Unfortunately, that describes a lot of slopes out here. Fortunately, you can always reduce your exposure by choosing gentler terrain or by timing your terrain options by avoiding steeper, sunnier slopes near the heat of the day. 

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