Avalanche forecast

West Slopes North

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Stability is improving, but there's still a chance you could trigger an avalanche in wind drifted snow on Tuesday. Avoid stiffer wind-drifted steep rollovers and high-consequence terrain where an avalanche might send you off a cliff, through trees, or into a gully.  Loose snow avalanches, wet and dry, will continue to run on Wednesday.  

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Shallow, rippled wind-drifted surfaces were observed in the zone on Tuesday. A few small human-triggered avalanches were reported in wind-drifted snow. Search for stiffer feeling deposits of snow, which may be fairly shallow and subtle at mid elevations, but stiffer and thicker as you gain elevation.  Avoid these wind-drifted areas on slopes steeper than 35°.

    You may be able to use smaller test slopes to see if you can trigger a small avalanche. Hand pits in the top foot or two of snow could be useful for identifying weaknesses beneath the slab. Start on small slopes before you go to big ones. If you do to travel into steep terrain, avoid slopes with terrain traps such as rocks, trees, cliffs, or gullies in the runouts, as these are areas you don't want to get carried into if you do trigger an avalanche. 

     

    (3/5/2024)

    Small amounts of wind drifting was noted on Tuesday. You can see the textured snow surface, which is a good indicator of wind slab formation. In this photo, snow surfaces were still fairly low density and minimal shallow slab formation was present. 

    Photo: Jason Speer

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Loose snow avalanches, both wet and dry, will be abundant on Wednesday. When the sun shines intensely on a steep slope, expect wet loose avalanche activity to begin. A crust likely formed on suspect slopes from Tuesday, so the sun will have to cook through these frozen surfaces first. If you notice snow surfaces getting wet and heavy, and see any rollerballs or natural activity on steep, sunny slopes, avoid similar steep slopes and the lower-angle terrain beneath those steeper areas. At first the sun will affect east-facing terrain, before it shifts southerly midday and around to the west near the end of the day. 

    You can trigger loose dry avalanche on steep, non wind-affected shady slopes at all elevations. On Tuesday backcountry riders reported loose dry avalanches carrying large amounts of mass. Expect the same on Wednesday. If you enter a steep slope be aware of the amount of loose snow running down with you. Don't let it catch you and take you for a ride. 

     

    (3/5/2024)

    Small (D1) wet loose avalanche, just below Artist Point in the Baker backcountry. Big enough to possibly bury a small animal.

Avalanche Discussion

Slab avalanche activity has slowed in the last 24 hours as a large storm left the region. On Sunday and Monday, natural and human-triggered storm and wind slab avalanches were mainly shallow, only a foot or so deep, but some were propagating wide- one was even several hundred feet across! By Tuesday, most natural avalanche activity seemed to back off and avalanches were mainly human-triggered, and smaller in size. We suspect stability to continue to improve into Wednesday, but it's still possible to trigger an avalanche. In general, the deep storm snow layer is "right side up" and storm snow instabilities are quickly settling out. 

Since February 24 the Heather Meadows weather station has received 8 inches of water, and the settled snow base over doubled from 54 inches to 117 inches. In the last 24-hour period, the snow base settled a whopping 6 inches! Settlement cones are huge, and backcountry travelers are reporting a slightly more supportable snow base, but it's still very deep out there, and snow immersion suffocation is a major concern.

Very large avalanches failed naturally throughout the zone, and with explosive triggers near Mt Baker Ski Area during the High danger period of the storm last week.  They likely failed on weak layers either above the Early February Crust or above the 2/24 crust, which are about 1ft apart in depth. It's very unlikely that a human can trigger an avalanche on this layer, which is probably 6-12 feet or so beneath the surface in most areas. A huge cornice fall would be the most likely culprit for a resulting very large avalanche.  If the weak layer exists anywhere, it is probably on upper-elevation north-facing slopes. Nearby zones, with much shallower snowpacks, are seeing human-triggered avalanches on this layer. 

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