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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 10th, 2015–Dec 11th, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Kootenay Boundary.

The slopes with the best riding conditions are also the most dangerous - steep alpine slopes

Confidence

Low - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

Friday: Mainly cloudy with light snow flurries bringing up to 5 cm of snow. Freezing levels in valley bottoms and light southerly ridgetop winds. Saturday: Increasing snowfall with 10-15cm possible by Sunday morning. Freezing levels in valley bottoms and light southwesterly becoming moderate to strong southerly ridgetop winds. Sunday: Another 5-10cm possible with freezing levels peaking at 1400m and moderate southerly easing to light southwesterly ridgetop winds.

Avalanche Summary

Reports from Wednesday include numerous natural and skier-controlled 20-90cm thick storm slab avalanches up to Size 2 primarily on east through northeast aspects as low as 1600 m.

Snowpack Summary

Recent heavy rain to treeline elevations and wet snow above saturated and loaded the upper snowpack, forming a thick crust which now has up to 20cm fresh snow on top (with perhaps a thin crust within it). Weaknesses linger within the recent snow as well as at deeper old snow surface interfaces, which consists of facets, surface hoar, and/or a crust at upper elevations (especially on southerly aspects). The most critical of these is surface hoar buried early December (now likely down 50-100cm), which has the potential for remote triggering, extensive releases and prolonged sensitivity to triggers. It is likely lurking in most sheltered areas treeline and below. The thick mid-November crust is just under this weakness.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.