Avalanche forecast

West Slopes North

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

We received a lot of light, fluffy snow on Saturday and stability is slowly improving, but it's possible that you can still trigger a large, dangerous avalanche on Monday. Most of our concerns exist on wind-drifted steep slopes, but given the odd avalanches that have been reported and large amounts of snow still settling, it's not a bad idea to continue avoiding large, steep rollovers in unsupported terrain as well.  If clouds part for a short period, wet avalanches may occur on steep slopes facing the sun. 

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Given the large load of snow we had on Saturday, we're hesitant to say that you won't trigger an avalanche in non-wind-loaded terrain on large, steep, and unsupported slopes. Stop and reevaluate before stepping out onto a large, steep slope. Stick to smaller or less high-consequence terrain as the snow continues to settle. Use even more caution if the avalanche path exposes you to a terrain trap.

    That being said, you're probably most likely to trigger an avalanche on a wind-loaded slope. These drifts could be subtly heavier or a firmer slab beneath more recent, less wind-affected snow. It may even be hard to tell if the snow was wind-affected, as it could be so soft. On Saturday as the snow was falling, natural and human-triggered avalanches occurred around the zone (Baker backcountry, Baker NRA). Several avalanches were triggered Sunday morning on smaller test slopes.

    Search for any clues indicating recent drifting, including very subtle ripples, or just-barely-heavier feeling snow, if that. Visual clues may be your best indicator that a slope has been wind-affected. Avoid these wind-drifted, steep slopes. 

    (3/16/2025)

    A large natural slab avalanche that ran on the north side of Table Mountain, likely on Saturday or overnight, as the storm was winding down. 

    Natural avalanches are no longer expected, but it's possible that you can still trigger an avalanche, especially in wind loaded terrain or large, unsupported slopes. 

    Photo: Jason Speer

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Some spots in the zone harbor weak snow beneath the last couple of week's storm layers. An avalanche that fails on a layer of buried surface hoar or facets can propagate widely, be larger or deeper than expected, and will definitely take you by surprise. The avalanche will probably be around 3 feet deep, possibly more. The best advice for avoiding being caught in one of these avalanches is to avoid large, steep slopes, especially if unsupported or above terrain traps, at mid and upper elevations on northwest through east aspects. 

    The type and distribution of weak layers varies between buried surface hoar in Canyon Creek, facets over a crust in the Sisters Range, or any other unusual combination given the local variations in snowpack that we've seen in the last few weeks. Although not out of the question, we have less evidence that these weak underlying layers exist in the Baker backcountry area. These layers are gaining strength and probably becoming harder to trigger, but if you trigger and get caught in a persistent slab avalanche, it would take you for a scary ride and easily kill you.  

    (3/14/2025)

    A snowmobile triggered avalanche in the Canyon Creek area. This avalanche looks like it failed on the persistent weak layer, which is probably about 2 ft deep, and exists on shady slopes. 

    Photo: Kassi Leeper

Avalanche Discussion

If the sun pops out from behind the clouds, rollerballs or small wet loose avalanches could run on steep slopes facing directly into the sun.  An abundance of light, dry snow exists and shallow loose dry avalanches could run on steep slopes. Given all the low-density snow that exists, tree wells and other snow immersion hazards are a concern that aren't to be taken lightly right now. 

After several stormy days broken up by a sunny stretch on Friday, we've had a steady stream of natural and human-triggered slab avalanches happening all over the zone. The Baker backcountry area is riddled with crown lines, many of which are filled in, and in some places you can only see the evidence of debris piles hidden under the fresh layer of new snow. Most avalanches from our most recent storm on Saturday failed at the bottom of that storm layer, 1-2ft deep. More recent avalanches from Sunday reportedly failed in shallower storm layers. However, we've had enough unusual avalanches that are keeping us on our toes- they may be few and far between, but we wouldn't be surprised if someone triggers an unusual deeper-than-expected, or possibly remote, avalanche on Monday. 

If you make it into the backcountry, please share with us what you find by submitting an obervation HERE, or on the Avy App. 

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