Avalanche forecast

Stevens Pass

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

An overnight storm will bring fresh snow and wind. Steer around steep slopes with deep wind drifts where you could trigger a slab avalanche. Increasing sunshine during the day will make triggering small wet avalanches on steep, sunny slopes easy. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Fresh snow and moderate winds will form sensitive wind slabs along ridgelines and exposed terrain. Visual clues, such as actively blowing snow, textured surfaces, and cornice formations, can help identify wind-loaded terrain. Steer around steep slopes if you see actively blowing snow or signs of instability, such as cracks that shoot out from your equipment. You can also use small wind-affected test slopes to see how the snow reacts, snow that cracks and slides easily means you are likely to trigger a wind slab. We expect most avalanches to be small, but even a small avalanche could have significant consequences in steep, rocky terrain. As you climb in elevation, where more precipitation will fall as snow, avalanches could be larger. 

    Smaller storm slabs are also possible in sheltered terrain, we expect most of these to be small. However, it is worth avoiding likely trigger points such as convex rollovers, unsupported slopes, or slopes with higher consequences due to terrain traps. 

    (2/16/2022)

    Example of cracking on a small wind loaded test slope. 

    Photo: Nate Hough-Snee

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–1.5

    We expect increasing sun during the day, and since we're entering Mid-March, it won't take long for snow on sunny slopes to turn into wet mush. With a slick crust underneath, wet avalanches could easily travel further than expected. Move to shady or lower angle terrain if you see rollerballs or natural wet loose avalanches. These slides tend to be more predictable and likely small in size, but you could easily get hung up in one or send wet snow down on your backcountry partners.  So, stay tuned into your surroundings and don't linger beneath rocks shedding snow in the sun. 

    (12/31/2021)

    Shallow snow warming in the sun over a crust can produce small, but long running wet avalanches like in this photo. 

    Photo: Matt Primomo

Avalanche Discussion

The storm system was slow to move inland on Sunday, so we expect most of the moisture and winds to impact the area overnight. You could see some lingering showers on Monday morning, but those will likely clear out quickly, leading to sunny skies. This storm will start warm, with rain up into the mid-elevations, before cooling and bringing snow levels below pass level. So, if you're getting into higher elevations, expect more fresh snow and larger avalanches. 

The snowpack underwent a significant transition after the warm atmospheric river event at the end of February. Since then, a few inches of snow accumulated, quickly melting and freezing into a crust in sunny terrain. Northern aspects at upper elevations still hold soft, dry snow over a supportable crust and more pleasant travel conditions.  Lower elevations and South, West, and East aspects harbor thick, melt-freeze crusts that soften during the day. During the storm, there were notable large slab and wet avalanches throughout the zone. We suspect the rain/snow line was between 6500 and 7000ft during the storm. Since significant liquid water moved through the snowpack and there have been multiple freeze-thaw cycles since then, we don't have significant concerns about more deeply buried weak layers. 

If you make it into the backcountry, please share with us what you find by submitting an observation HERE or on the Avy app. 

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