Avalanche forecast

Turnagain Pass and Girdwood

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

The avalanche danger is expected to rise to HIGH later this afternoon as another round of snow and wind impacts the area. This will make natural and human-triggered avalanches failing within new snow up to a foot deep very likely by the end of the day. This will also add stress to a weak layer of snow buried 2 to 3' deep, making larger avalanches likely. Keep an eye on changing conditions and increasing danger through the day, and be ready to avoid traveling in avalanche terrain as the weather picks up.

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SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS:

We are sorry to report a fatal avalanche accident that occurred outside of Girdwood on the afternoon of March 4, 2025. Three people were caught and killed in an avalanche in the west fork of the Twentymile River. We extend our deepest condolences to the friends and families of all parties involved. We have posted a preliminary accident report on our website. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    Recent Avalanches: The avalanche activity on Seattle Ridge has continued, with a large avalanche on the Seattle Creek Headwall seen yesterday. It is unclear whether this avalanche was natural or human-triggered. Three days ago there were several human triggered avalanches on Seattle Ridge that failed on buried surface hoar, one of them intentionally triggered by cornice fall, and three triggered remotely at the same time by a person. There were also multiple natural avalanches observed from Taylor Pass.

    Avlanche danger is expected to rise today through tonight as another round of snow and wind impacts the area. This system is looking to favor Turnagain Pass, and will likely bring 6 to 12" across the area. Given the current dangerous snowpack we have already been dealing with, this is cause for concern. The likelihood of natural and human triggered avalanches is increasing today, and very dangerous conditions are expected as the storm picks up.

    We are expecting to see natural activity within the new snow (see Problem 2 for more), but the bigger concern is the layer of surface hoar buried 2 to 3' deep. We have seen large avalanches triggered on this area consistently over the past two weeks, and the new and windblown snow will be adding stress and making conditions even more touchy. In many cases avalanches have been triggered remotely, from low angle terrain adjacent to steeper slopes. Our current baseline is already dangerous, and that will get worse this afternoon into tonight. If you plan on getting out today, it will be important to enter the backcountry with a conservative mindset, and be ready to avoid avalanche terrain entirely as the weather picks up through the day.

    New snow and strong winds will make cornice falls very likely today. These often trigger larger avalanches, especially with the kind of snowpack we are dealing with. Avoid lingering under cornices, and give them plenty of space if you are traveling along ridgelines.

    Glide Avalanches remain likely, with at least two avalanches seen over the past week. These are very large and unpredictable. The only way to manage this problem is to avoid traveling below open glide cracks. 

    (3/8/2025)

    Recent avalanche on the Seattle Creek Headwall, seen yesterday from Eddie's ridge.

    Photo: Andy Moderow

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Avalanches failing within the new snow will become larger and more likely through the day and into tonight. Fresh wind slabs will likely be 1 to 2' deep by this afternoon, and they will be touchy. We will likely see some natural avalanche activity by the end of the day. These may impact the deeper weak layer mentioned in Problem 1, and they may be big enough to be a concern on their own by the end of the day. These will be forming below ridgelines, convex rollovers, and in gullies that are getting loaded as the storm picks up. 

    Storm Slabs will become more likely as the snow starts stacking up. These should be small during the day, but will likely get up to a foot deep as the storm unfolds.

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