Avalanche forecast

Northwest Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired 6 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Senstive slab avalanche conditions exist on steep slopes on the northern half of the compass.  Observers have triggered avalanches the past three days on northerly aspects where last week's snow rest above weak facets.  Conditions are more dangerous near and above treeline, where slabs are thicker, can break wider, and be remotely triggered.  You can reduce the risk of slab avalanche by choosing lower-angled terrain on northerly aspects or on southerly aspects where weak layers are uncommon.  Clear skies and warm temperatures may wet the snow surface on sunny aspects.  If you find more than a few inches of wet snow, head for a cooler aspect to avoid triggering a small loose avalanche.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    The most probable place for an avalanche to break is the new/old interface about a foot deep in sheltered areas or deeper on wind-drifted slopes.  The recent storm deposited snow on very weak facets on the northern half of the compass and thin crusts on easterly and westerly aspects.  Expect to find sensitive conditions on the northern half of the compass with the most sensitive interface being dry facets on more northerly aspects. 

     Our current loading event could reactivate weak layers buried deeper in the snowpack beneath older, harder slabs.  The most likely scenario is a shallow storm slab gaining enough mass to trigger a step-down avalanche on a north or east aspect at higher elevations.   This is a low likelihood but more difficult problem to assess.  You can reliably avoid the problem on slope angles less than 30 degrees.  Southerly aspects have a more reliable, springlike snowpack structure, and the old snowpack at lower elevations is often fully faceted lacking old, cohesive slabs.   

    (2/13/2026) A remotely-triggered slab avalanche on northerly-facing terrain in the Anthracite Range.

     Photo: Crested Butte Avalanche Center

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    On Saturday, conditions warmed more than expected and a small shed cycle occured on sunny features near and above treeline.  Warm weather and sunshine may soften and wet snow surfaces on the southern side of the compass today.   Gusty winds and high cloud cover may limit warming on Sunday, but monitor the snow surface to gauge the likelihood of wet loose avalanches.  If you sink past your ankles into wet snow, then head to a cooler aspect to avoid triggering a loose avalanche.

    A skier-triggered Wet Loose avalanche on a south aspect at 12,300 feet.

Avalanche Discussion

The prolonged February dry spell is not tolerating the recent loading event.  The evidence of natural and human-triggered avalanches clearly indicates a problematic snowpack on the northern half of the compass.  Conditions are the most dangerous, as slabs are bigger, in areas to the west and north of town, and on wind-drifted features.  As you climb higher into the terrain, avalanche size will increase.  Human-triggered avalanches have occured along Schuylkill Ridge, the Anthracite Range, and Redwell Basin over the past few days.  These observations can provide insight of what to expect if you travel on steep northerly aspects.  The easiest way to reduce risk on suspect aspects is to keep slope angles below 35 degrees and avoid traveling directly beneath steeper terrain.

An uptick in winds on Saturday spurred a few natural avalanches on drifted terrain features (you can view those avalanches here).  Gusty winds continue on Sunday and may transport some snow to leewarad terrain features on the eastern side of the compass.  The impact of the wind may be tempered by the crusty conditions that developed from Saturday's warmth.  Many windward terrain features were cooked and lack available snow for transport.  Remain observant for evidence of recent or active wind loading and steer clear of these areas as you may encounter a sensitive slab avalanche problem.  Slopes with active wind loading could produce a natural avalanche.

As temperatures increase on Sunday, you may encounter wet surface snow on southerly aspects.  An increase in wind speeds and high cloud cover may limit the development of this problem today.  Evidence on Saturday clearly pointed to a problem, but there is uncertainty if those conditions develop again today.

Regions covered