Avalanche forecast

Togwotee Pass

Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
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Highlights

The avalanche danger will rise to considerable as the day warms and snow surfaces become wet. Wet snow avalanches are likely in the afternoon and may be triggered by humans or release naturally on steep, rocky slopes that face the sun. In addition, large avalanches failing on weak snow near the bottom of the snowpack are possible. Monitor the snow surface as the day warms and consider exiting the mountains if you are sinking into slushy snow. Terrain near or under cornices should be given a wide buffer.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Wet loose avalanches are likely on steep, sunny slopes as the day warms. These avalanches begin at a "point", usually the base of a warm rock or your snowmobile, and fan out to collect snow as they move. They are most hazardous in confined terrain or on large slopes where they gather a lot of snow. So far, wet snow avalanches have been relatively small and easy to predict. However, melt-water is working its way down towards deeper weak layers during the heat of the day and putting wet slab avalanches on the radar. Steep and rocky south facing slopes are the first places that these avalanches might occur. While it may require at least one night without freezing before we see any activity, wet slabs are difficult to predict and can be large. 

    It is important to monitor the snow surface as the day heats up. Surface crusts formed overnight may break down quicker today than they did yesterday. Consider changing your plans, or exiting the mountains, if the snow surface becomes slushy and you are sinking in past your ankles. Roller balls and small point releases are also signs that conditions are becoming unstable.

    Pinwheel formation off of south facing cliff bands. These are signs that the snowpack is becoming wet and unstable.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Triggering an avalanche remains possible on weak snow buried within the snowpack's top 2-4 feet. Togwotee's snowpack is characterized by a thick layer of weak, sugary snow buried near the base of the snowpack on all aspects and elevations. This problem is most sensitive on steep, rocky, and wind-affected slopes on the north half of the compass. Watch for thin spots in the snowpack where weak layers are easier to impact, and trench your sled track into the snow or probe to identify these areas. Multiple tracks  on a slope are not an indicator of stability with this avalanche problem, particularly as we see more warming and sunshine each day. Use caution in steep terrain and give yourself a wide margin for error on slopes with high consequences or around terrain traps. 

    (3/8/2024)

    Persistent Slab avalanche that covered the 'K' trail at Togwotee. This avalanche occurred on an east aspect around 7600'. 

    Photo: Cameron Galt

Avalanche Discussion

Our beautiful stretch of spring weather continues. Temperatures have been slowly creeping up each day and night during the recent spell of high pressure. Overnight lows were about 5 degrees warmer than they were the previous night. Fortunately, they still dipped below freezing into the mid 20s for most of the night. Day time highs are expected to reach near 40 degrees at 10,000’ today and skies are forecasted to be clear. While snow surfaces refroze last night, they may break down and become wet quicker today given the overall warmer temperatures. Riding plans and timing should be adjusted accordingly. The transitional period from winter to spring can be difficult to plan for. Conditions change rapidly. You may be traveling on a nice supportable crust only to have it disintegrate with a few minutes of intense sunshine. Today, it remains important to get out early and return early. Ideally, you won’t see any signs of instability. Monitor the snow surface, watch the terrain above you, and be prepared to adjust your plans if the snow becomes too wet or you begin to see signs of wet avalanche activity. 

It remains possible to trigger a large avalanche on deeply buried weak layers on very steep shaded slopes that are unsupported and rocky. Warming temperatures will make triggering one of these large slides more likely. Because of this, sticking to lower angle slopes and avoiding steep gullies or other terrain traps is recommended.

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