Avalanche forecast

Maritime

Valdez Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The avalanche hazard is Considerable above 1500'.  Recent snowfall is sitting on a weak form of snow, making human triggered avalanches likely 1-2 feet in depth.   Watch for signs of instability such as shooting cracks, collapsing and recent avalanche activity that indicate unstable snow.  Natural avalanches are possible.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    A layer of surface hoar that was buried on 12/22 (12/22 BSH) has been identified in the Intermountain and Continental zone up to 3800' on all aspects.  This layer has not been found yet in terrain that is close to the Thompson Pass gap probably due to pre-storm wind that would have disturbed it.  It is still unclear as to whether this layer exists in the Maritime zone.  12/22 BSH is now 10-18 inches beneath the surface after this weeks gradual snowfall, with another 1-3 inches expected today.  

    The 12/22 layer is a concern because it is known for being weak in shear and can persist for long periods.  This layer has not yet shown signs of propagation in Extended Column Tests.  This is likely due to the surface snow being very uncohesive (no slab) and new snowfall amounts not yet reaching a critical amount.  This puts us in a period where snowpack assesment will be more of a challenge due to several factors.

    At the current state of the snowpack, instability in the upper snowpack is not expected to be widespread even though a weak layer may be present.  This is because the overlying snow in many locations, has very little slab charachter currently.  Slab charachter is a variable that can change with time as snow naturally settles and with location as areas with wind affect will have stiffer snow that is more prone to failure.  Not only is this a challenge  because slab character can vary along a single slope but also because identifying the weak layer can be a challenge even if you take time to dig a snowpit.  

    After a clear day on Friday light snowfall has returned to our area with a couple inches expected today.  North winds are expected to increase to 30mph in wind channeled terrain which will add to cohesion and increase sensitivity where wind distribution is occurring.

      Watch for signs of instability, such as shooting cracks that could indicate the presence of a weak layer.  Pay attention to the amount of new snow that exists and the stiffness of the slab.  The stiffer the surface snow is, the more propagation potential there is.  Using small inconsequential test slopes can be a good tool today especially if you can find areas where the wind has stiffened the surface.  Be suspicious of hand shear results when performed in areas with light unconsolidated snow at the surface.

    The hazard is expected to increase today as north winds increase the cohesion of the surface snow in places, along with a couple inches of additional snowfall.

     

    (12/26/2024)

    12/22 BSH at 3800' crud

    Photo: Gareth Brown

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    North wind is expected to increase today along wind channeled terrain, but is not expected to be widespread.  There is plenty of loose snow available for transport which will form fresh wind slabs up to 2 feet in depth in specific areas.  Wind slabs may be forming on buried surface hoar, making these areas very sensitive (see problem above).  Even where BSH does not exist, like areas close to the Thompson Pass Gap or high elevation ridge lines the likelihood of human triggered avalanches will increase where wind reditribution is occurring.  This type of avalanche problem is most sensitive when it is forming or directly after.

    Wind slabs can have pillowed look or a rippled surface texture.  Watch for signs of instability such as shooting cracks, collapsing, recent avalanche activity, and active wind loading that would indicate the possibility of unstable wind slabs.

Avalanche Discussion

Observed Avalanche Activity last 72 hours: 

A few dry loose slides reported on the East aspect of Mummy Mountain  in the Maritime zone.

Our primary concern of the day will be the layer of surface hoar that was buried on 12/22, is 10-18" below the surface, and has been found in numerous locations away from wind channeled terrain in the low and mid elevation band.  It has not been observed at upper elevations yet, but it may exist there as well.  Currently the snow above the 12/22 BSH is uncohesive (no slab) in many locations.  This will change to some extent today as natural settlement occurs and north wind is expected to increase.  The pressure difference from Cordova to Klutina lake is 4 mbs which will lead to some outflow wind activity, however it is not expected to be widespread.

Be aware that a wicked learning environment is likely in place.  This means that you could ski or ride a slope without triggering an avalanche, even though a weak layer may be present.  This would allow for a person to gain confidence.  As more confidence is built and the person thinks they are going through proper terrain progression, they may actually be getting closer to triggering an avalanche without knowing it.  Eventually the person may choose steeper terrain where the slab is slightly stiffer and/or the weak layer is more pronounced and a slide is triggered.  

Unfortunately looking for and testing this layer is not always straightforward and can easily be missed even by experienced users.  Test slopes without consequence and some wind loaded snow can be effective in identifying this layer.  Pay attention to shooting cracks even small ones that can indicate the presence of this layer.

Continue to avoid Glide cracks in the area where they exist from Nick's Buttress through Cracked Ice at mid elevation.

If you travel in the Continental zone today, exercise extra caution as there is very limited field data from this location.  It is unclear as to whether deep slab instabilities exist, however it is a possibility.

If you get out in the mountains today consider leaving an observation to help increase the understanding of current snowpack stability.  

A weather and snowpack season history is available by clicking on the Weather History tab that is located above the bottom line statement once you have entered the full forecast.

Season Snowfall Data

Location 24 hour Snowfall Inches- 12/28 24 hour Snow Water Equivalent Inches Height of Snow December Snowfall Season Total Snowfall Valdez     4    N/O         27     35 Thompson Pass    1 N/O   N/O    N/O    N/O Nicks    0 N/O    50    27 N/O 46 Mile    Trace   N/O   22    10 N/O

Regions covered