Avalanche forecast

Mt Hood

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Changing weather conditions will bring changing avalanche conditions.  You may be able to trigger wet avalanches on steep slopes at the start of the day, however, you may want to start thinking about wind slabs forming at higher elevations as rain transitions over to snow.  Strong winds and overlapping avalanche problems will complicate your day, so consider keeping your terrain choices simple, and avoid travel in areas where avalanches can start, run or stop. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    There is some uncertainty about how much new snow will start accumulating as snow levels drop on Tuesday.  Once snow starts falling it will be joined by very strong SW winds.  These winds will redistribute this new snow and create shallow wind slabs on the lee sides of ridges and in the alpine.  If you start seeing new snow accumulating- identify where the wind is blowing the new snow-and avoid similar slopes greater than 35 degrees. If you see blowing snow, cornices developing, or observe cracking in the new snow- assume wind slabs are forming close by. 

     

    Anticipate where wind slabs are living by looking for where the snow is blowing.  Corncies are often great indicators of potentially wind loaded terrain beneath. 

    Photo: Joe Dellaporta

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    Monday evening into Tuesday may bring up to another 1.5-2 inches of water (rain) to the Mt. Hood area. This rain will continue to destabilize our snowpack and maintain the wet snow avalanche hazard.  We likely saw a natural avalanche cycle 4 days ago when rain was initially introduced to a dry snowpack, however, any steep slopes should still be considered suspect with this amount of rain on snow.  Continue to avoid travel in areas where avalanches can start, run, or come to a stop. For example, traveling in the bottom of a canyon may not be the best spot to be, since larger avalanches from the upper mountain can reach these areas. 

    You should also watch out for other wet avalanche problem types, such as wet loose avalanches in steep terrain.  These slides are often less destructive, but can still create trouble in the wrong terrain.  

    (12/23/2022)

    You may be able to still trigger wet slabs like this on Tuesday. 

    Photo: NPS Rainier Rangers

Avalanche Discussion

Active weather will continue on Tuesday with strong to extreme southwest winds and unfortunately more precipitation in-form of rain.  That said, snow levels are forecasted to slowly drop throughout the day, so this should help the rain transition over to snow for most trailhead locations.  The question will be, how much new snow???

This complicated weather forecast makes for a complicated avalanche forecast.  Tuesday will certainly bring a wet snow avalanche hazard since we already have a wet snowpack and more rain in the forecast, however, you may want to consider talking about dry snow avalanches as new snow piles up.  As the weather changes, so should your mindset.  If you do venture out into the winds on Tuesday, it will be a good day to be on your game and watch for changing conditions, and adjust your tour plans accordingly as the weather changes. 

If you get out into the mountains, let us know what you see by submitting a public observation!

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