Avalanche forecast

Northwest Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Both human-triggered and natural avalanches have become a dime a dozen this week. Don't let the continued warning of dangerous avalanche conditions lose its effect. Conservative terrain choices are required right now.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    A widespread weak layer was buried by a potent storm earlier this week and produced a notable avalanche cycle. Friday's storm further overburdened the same weak layer while producing more human and natural avalanche activity. You can expect typical Persistent Slab behavior like wide propagation and remote-triggering of slopes from below or adjacent terrain. 

    This avalanche problem is the largest in size on the lee sides of wind-loaded terrain features. While the problem will be most sensitive to human triggering on the northern half of the compass. On southerly-facing slopes, the weak layer distribution is not as widespread. On some southerly-facing slopes, you may find those same slabs sitting on facets/crusts and creating dangerous avalanche conditions. While in other areas the weak layer may not be continuous across the terrain, or if the slope didn't hold old snow prior to the last storm, there will be an absence of the problematic weak layers.

    A widely-propagating avalanche failed during Tuesday's natural cycle.  Friday's storm will produce another round of avalanches like this.

Avalanche Discussion

We sure are thankful to be back in the flow of storms, but those storms over the last week haven't given the snowpack a chance to adjust to these loading events. The observations tab is full of recent avalanche activity. Our most recent storm finished up Friday evening. Total accumulations during that storm were 1.2" SWE at Schofield Pass with around 9" of snow. That's really thick snow... While both the Butte and Upper Taylor weather stations recorded around .5" SWE for the storm. The other component of this storm was a strong to extreme wind event. For example, the Scarps Ridge weather station recorded the first 100mph wind gust of the season and even weather stations down in the valley recorded strong winds, as you may remember all too well. 

Persistent Slabs remain the primary avalanche problem. There will be some leftover wind slabs after yesterday's wind event, but there will be few locations where a slab avalanche would only release in the upper snowpack, vs stepping down to the persistent weak layers near the bottom of the snowpack. If you were traveling in an area not highlighted by the persistent slab avalanche problem, these potential wind slabs would be something to look out for. 

The avalanche danger is kind of stuck. It isn't looking like we will get out of CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger and dangerous avalanche conditions anytime soon. With these conditions, there are still places to ski and ride, but thoughtful terrain choices and conservative decision-making will be required. Low-angled terrain is a great starting point. 

EVENTS:

  • Avalanche Awareness Night is tonight! While the Beacon Brushup is coming up on Sunday.  Details here.

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