Hazard levels will spike if we get a larger than expected snow fall. Watch for changing conditions. Loose dry avalanches may be a concern if we get 10cm or more.
Confidence
Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain
Weather Forecast
Forecasts conflict at the moment. One is calling for trace amounts of snow overnight, while the other is predicting an upslope storm that could give 10-15cm. Time will tell... Temperatures tonight will fall to -22C and rise slightly to -18C tomorrow. Ridge winds will be around 30km/hr.
Avalanche Summary
Nothing new, however visibility was limited.
Snowpack Summary
We had 5-10cm of snow last night near the divide. The snow came in on the tail end of the wind storm, so many alpine windslabs may be slightly buried on lee aspects. At all other elevations, the fresh wind slabs are still evident and slightly less reactive than yesterday. Unsupported terrain at treeline will be more prone to wind slab failures. As of 3pm this afternoon the latest pulse of snow has laid down about 3-5cm.
Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.