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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 7th, 2012–Jan 8th, 2012

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Rockies.

Confidence

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Sunday: Light snowfall / moderate westerly winds / freezing level at 1000m on the west side of the region/ 2300m on the east side of the region / Monday: 8-15cm of snow / moderate westerly winds / freezing level at 1500mTuesday: Clear skies with no precipitation / winds switching to light and northerly / freezing level at surface

Avalanche Summary

Size 2 natural and human-triggered slab avalanches were reported in the region throughout the week. Size 1.5 loose snow avalanches were reported in the Elkford area on Saturday.Please visit our incident report database or our regional discussion forums on our website for more details.

Snowpack Summary

The average HS (height of snow) in the Crowsnest North is 120cms and the Crowsnest South has 150cms. As we move further West into the Elk Valley North the HS is an average of 130cms. The Elk Valley South sits at 170cms. In the Flathead the avg. HS is 170cms. All snow depths indicated are at the 2000m elevation.In the alpine and exposed slopes at treeline windward aspects have been stripped of snow by strong winds, and lee slopes have widespread stiff wind slabs. In the mid pack, weak buried surface hoar layers can be found on North-NE slopes at treeline and below down approx. 30-55cms. The surface hoar may co-exist with facets that are result of the early December dry spell. This interface is still reactive and has produced natural avalanches over the past week.At the bottom of the snowpack a variable facet/ crust/ facet sandwich is located with depth hoar up to size 5mm below the crust, and facets size 2mm above. There has been little in the way of recent activity on basal layers, but the nature of a release would be highly destructive.As a side note, the snow depths alone indicate that the region is highly variable in terms of snowpack structure. You should anticipate that layering and reactivity of weaknesses will also be variable throughout the region.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.