Avalanche Forecast

Fair

Freezing levels will continue to drop as a cold front moves across the province.  A ridge of high pressure will build over the coast Wednesday resulting in clear skies and light SW winds over the interior.  A weak front will move across the province on Friday and may produce isolated flurries.

As the temperature drops I expect that avalanche activity will slow down.   The recent snow, rain, and wind were a great test of buried persistent weaknesses in the snowpack and resulted in a widespread avalanche cycle.  The mid-January surface hoar layer has been responsible for the majority of the recent avalanche activity although there have been reports of occasional releases to ground or the mid December layer in the Selkirks.

I suspect that freezing levels rose to about 2800m during the recent warm spell and that rain saturated the upper snowpack.  At upper elevations the surface is heavily wind affected.  A breakable crust already exists in the alpine and as the freezing level continue to drop down to the valley floor a widespread melt freeze crust will form on all aspects and elevations.  I suspect that at lower elevations warm moist snow may have destroyed the mid-January surface hoar layer.  Where it still exists it can be found down between 40 and 80 cm.  The midpack is broken by the mid-December surface hoar layer that is now 80 to 140cm below the surface.