Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

A ridge of high pressure should bring a mix of sun and cloud for Friday. Freezing levels are expected to reach around 2500m and alpine winds are forecast to be strong from SW by the end of the day. On Saturday, a weak storm system reaches the region. Models are currently showing 10-20mm between Saturday morning and Sunday morning. Freezing levels on Saturday are expected to stay around 2000m during the day but are forecast to fall to below 1000m by Sunday morning meaning rain may switch to snow at many elevations. During the storm, alpine winds are forecast to be strong from the SW. On Sunday, the storm should exit and a mix of sun and cloud can be expected with light winds.

On Tuesday and Wednesday, several natural avalanches were reported to have released on the ground. These were on solar aspects and the largest was a size 3. Natural and skier triggered wet sluffing was also reported up to size 2. On Friday, sunny and warm conditions could produce similar conditions. Large avalanches have isolated potential to release on deep weak layers or the ground. Sluffing is expected from steep sun-exposed slopes and the triggering of wind slabs is possible in the alpine.

A moist snow surface is being reported to around 2500m on solar aspects and to around 2000m on north aspects. The mid-February crust is buried down 10-30 cm and there is a weak layer of facets and/or surface hoar in the sandwich above the crust. The mid pack is well settled with a couple of persistent weak layers that continue to give hard or very hard results in snow profile tests. The late-Jan crust/surface hoar layer (up to 100 cm deep) and the mid-January surface hoar (80-120 cm deep) have gained significant strength and have been dormant for several weeks but now have the potential to wake-up with the current warm temperatures.