Avalog Join
Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 15th, 2016–Jan 16th, 2016
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: South Columbia.

The recently formed storm slab is now ripe for human triggering. Conservative terrain choices will be critical throughout the weekend.

Confidence

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

The next storm arrives Saturday morning and should produce 5-10 cm of snow by Sunday morning. Cloudy skies and a few flurries are expected for Sunday and Sunday night. The storm breaks Monday with a mix of sun and cloud. Freezing levels are highly variable throughout the region on Saturday and Sunday, ranging from valley bottom to 1200 m. Expect Sunday to be the warmest with a cooling trend beginning Monday morning. Ridgetop winds are expected to remain light to moderate out of the southwest for the forecast period. For additional weather information see avalanche.ca/weather

Avalanche Summary

Numerous natural and human triggered avalanches size 1-2 were reported throughout the region on Thursday.  A few natural size 2.5 avalanches were also reported on larger terrain features. These avalanches occurred on all aspects and elevations. This trend is expected to continue throughout the weekend as the snow load increases.

Snowpack Summary

A 30-40 cm storm slab overlays a variety of surfaces including large surface hoar, sun crusts, and facets. In recent days, the snow above this layer has settled into a cohesive slab and has become increasingly reactive to human triggers. Expect this slab to be thicker on lee features in the alpine. The mid and lower snowpack are generally well settled and strong.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Recent storm snow has settled into a reactive slab on all aspects and elevations. Watch for buried surface hoar that is easy to trigger on steep rolls in open terrain.
Avoid steep open slopes and convex rolls at and below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.>Start on small terrain and slope-cut the top of slopes before committing to the fall line.>Avoid lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4