Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain

Friday: light to moderate precipitation starting Thursday evening and continuing throughout Friday morning / moderate southeasterly winds / freezing level at 1700m Saturday: cloudy skies with very light snowfall / light easterly winds / freezing level at 1700m Sunday: overcast skies with a possibility of clearing in the afternoon / light easterly winds / freezing level at 1900m

On Wednesday and Thursday, numerous wet slab and wet loose snow avalanches to size 3 were reported in the region. They failed at all aspects and elevations bands, and occurred in response to very warm temperatures.With forecast weather, I expect a shift from wet snow avalanches to storm snow instabilities at higher elevations, while wet snow instabilities will still exist below treeline.

Very warm temperatures have dominated the region in recent days and all but the highest, north-facing slopes saw moist to wet surface conditions. As of Thursday morning, slightly cooler temperatures have allowed light amounts of new snow to fall above about 2000m while rain continued to penetrate and weaken the snowpack at lower elevations. Up to 80cm below the surface, you might find remnants of facetted crystals sitting on a crust in the alpine and at treeline; however, I suspect that forecast cooling may assist in strengthening this weak layer in most areas. The mid-February buried surface hoar layer is down about 140-220 cm, although avalanches releasing on this layer represent a very low probability-high consequence scenario. Cornices in the region are very large. With spring temperatures, these are more likely to become weak and fail. They could provide a large enough trigger to release deep layers on slopes below.