Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain

Thursday: Moderate precipitation starting overnight Wednesday becoming light by Thursday / moderate westerly winds / freezing level at 1700m Friday: Light precipitation with locally moderate accumulations / moderate westerly winds / freezing level at 1700m Saturday: generally clear skies / light and variable winds / freezing level at 1900m

Over the past few days, many wet loose snow avalanches to size 2.5 occurred in response to daytime warming and direct solar radiation. Numerous size 2-3.5 slab avalanches also occurred on sun-exposed aspects, with more isolated activity on shaded aspects. There has also been an increase in glide crack activity (mostly below treeline) to size 3.5. With forecast weather, I expect a shift from wet snow avalanches to storm snow instabilities at higher elevations, while wet snow instabilities will still exist below treeline.

Up to 80cm of snow overlies a layer of facetted crystals sitting on a crust in the alpine and at treeline. Recent naturally triggered avalanches are noteworthy and suggest the problem still exists. Wind slabs are reported to be isolated to the immediate lee of exposed features at high elevations. Melt-freeze conditions exist on all sun-exposed slopes as well as many north facing areas with limited crust recovery developing at night. There is still concern for the mid-February buried surface hoar layer that is down about 140-220 cm.; however, avalanches releasing on this layer represent a low probability-high consequence scenario. Cornices in the region are very large. With warmer temperatures and longer periods of direct solar radiation, these are likely to become weak and fail. They could provide a large enough trigger to release these deep layers on slopes below.