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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 19th, 2013–Feb 20th, 2013
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Northwest Coastal.

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain on Friday

Weather Forecast

Wednesday: Freezing Level: 500m Wind: SW, initially moderate increasing to strong by sundown.  10 - 15 expected during the day.Thursday: Freezing Level: 500m Wind: Strong SW backing off of to moderate SW in the evening.  10 - 20 cm expected during the day.Friday: Freezing Level: 500m Wind: Strong S decreasing to light W after dark.  15 -30 cm expected during the day.

Avalanche Summary

Avalanche activity on Monday was limited to small soft slabs to size 1.5 on both East and West facing aspects.  Sluffing continues to occur in steep terrain too.

Snowpack Summary

The most recent storm impacted the region on Friday Feb. 19th with totals in the north averaging around 70 cm, while the south picked up about 20cm.  The storm snow has settled out for the most part, and now wind slabs are the main problem.  Winds were previously out of the NW, W & SW, and there were even moderate localized winds out of the SE on Monday.  As a result, wind exposed slopes in both the treeline and alpine elevation bands feature a wide variety of wind slabs.  These slabs have grown less reactive over the last few days, but I suspect you could still find a skier triggerable slab near ridge crest. Cornices that now loom over many features may become weak with continued growth and/or daytime warming.The mid and lower snowpack layers are generally well settled.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

The region received a small shot of snow Monday along with east winds.  These reverse winds may have formed soft slabs in unusual locations.  Fresh slabs are likely hiding deep old slabs that may be rider triggerable in steep unsupported terrain.
Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>Be aware of the potential for wide propagations due to the presence of hard windslabs.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 5

Cornices

The recent snow and wind have been building cornices on lee features.  These cornices are likely weak and may fail at anytime.  Cornice failure has the potential to trigger large avalanches.
Give cornices a wide berth when travelling on or below ridges.>Extra caution needed around cornices with current conditions.>

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4