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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 8th, 2014–Mar 9th, 2014
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Northwest Coastal.

Confidence

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Weather Forecast

Tonight and Sunday: Periods of snow 20-30 cm. The freezing level is around 600-800 m. Winds are strong easing to moderate from the W-SW. Monday: Cloudy with sunny breaks and possible flurries. The freezing level is around 800 m. Winds are light but gusty from the W-SW. Tuesday: Periods of snow, heavy at times. The freezing level is around 1200-1500 m and winds increase to strong from the SW.

Avalanche Summary

Numerous size 1-2 rider triggered slab avalanches were reported throughout the region on Friday. It's likely a fairly widespread natural avalanche cycle occurred in many areas later on Friday afternoon when the storm peaked. Expect natural avalanche activity to taper off over the next couple days, while the potential for rider triggering remains high.

Snowpack Summary

40-70 cm of storm snow now sits on a layer of surface hoar or sugary faceted snow on shady slopes, a sun crust on steep solar aspects, or hard wind slabs and scoured slopes in exposed terrain. Initial tests on this new interface showed a poor bond between the new snow and old snow surface. Weaknesses may also exist within the new storm snow. The mid February weak layer of surface hoar or a crust/facet combo is buried 60-120 cm deep. There has been no reported activity on this layer recently, but the recent heavy snowfall and rapid warming could have triggered some large avalanches. Basal facets and/or depth hoar remain a concern in shallow snowpack areas in the northern part of the region.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Weather models suggest we will see another 20 cm through Sunday. This adds to the 30-60 cm that fell on Friday. All this snow sits on the previous old snow surface of facets, surface hoar, and/or a crust and may not bond well. 
Stick to non-avalanche terrain or small features with limited consequence.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 6

Persistent Slabs

There is potential for heavy loads like a cornice fall or a storm slab avalanche to step down and trigger a deeper persistent weak layer, down over a metre in most places.
Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.>Avoid lingering in runout zones.>

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 3 - 7