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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 25th, 2012–Dec 26th, 2012
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Northwest Coastal.

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain on Thursday

Weather Forecast

Wednesday: Light SW winds. Strong arctic outflow winds in the valleys. Alpine temp -8. A few cm snow.Thursday: Light SW winds. Alpine temp -7. Moderate snow.Friday: Moderate to strong SW winds. Alpine temp around -6. Moderate snow. 

Avalanche Summary

 Several natural size 1-2 loose dry and thin slab avalanches failed in terrain features wind-loaded by outflow (down-valley) winds over the past few days. Explosives triggered size 2-3 slabs which failed near the ground in facets last weekend.

Snowpack Summary

Wind slabs and cornices have developed on a fairly widespread basis and may be found on many slopes due to variable wind directions. Surface faceting is likely to continue while the weather remains cold. A layer of surface hoar buried in the upper metre of the pack has been observed in the Shames backcountry. The mid-pack is generally well settled. Near the base of the snowpack, a crust/facet layer continues to give hard, sudden results in snowpack tests. This weakness is unlikely to be triggered by a single person, but it remains possible with a very heavy load (e.g. cornice fall) or from a thin-spot trigger point.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind slabs have formed in response to down-valley winds. These could be triggered by the weight of a person or snowmobile.
Be aware of the potential for wide propagations due to the presence of hard windslabs.>Stay well to the windward side of corniced ridges.>Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Deep Persistent Slabs

A deeply buried weakness may be triggered from thin, rocky snowpack areas or with a large trigger.
Choose the deepest and strongest snowpack areas on your run.>Be aware of thin areas that may propagate to deeper instabilites.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 7