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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 14th, 2015–Mar 15th, 2015
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: South Coast.

Careful terrain and route selection are needed with all the new snow and strong winds.

Confidence

Fair - Due to the number and quality of field observations

Weather Forecast

This Pacific cold front should pass through the South Coast Inland and head east towards the Columbias by late Saturday afternoon followed by a brief break in the weather early Sunday.  Sunday afternoon will see another "pulse" of moisture, although less intense than the last one and may leave 10-15cm of snow at elevations above 1000m. Moderate to strong winds above 1500m will accompany this system.

Avalanche Summary

A few natural slabs have been reported that are supected to have occurred in the past 24 hrs, most likely during the height of the recent wind, snow, and warm temperature event. Also a natural size 2 initiated by a cornice failure , 20 to 30cm thick, and running on an old sruct.  A few wet snow avalanches have been reported occurring on solar aspects. Cloudy skies may keep the surface from overnight freezing and rising temperatures may increase the likelihood of loose wet avalanches and cornice failures.

Snowpack Summary

Incoming precipitation will fall on a variety of old snow surfaces that exist throughout the region. There are numerous crusts and old wind slabs buried in the snowpack above treeline that may still be problematic but below treeline the snowpack has had numerous warming and rain events and should be bombproof for the most part. Rain has recently been reported to ridge tops in the Coquihalla region. Solar aspects are reported to be going isothermal in some areas below 1600m

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

New snow accompanied by strong winds make the perfect recipe for wind slabs, use caution in lee terrain
Be aware of the potential for wide propagations due to the presence of hard windslabs.>Assess start zones carefully and use safe travel techniques.>The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Cornices

Recent warm temperatures and increased loads will add to the already "ripe" cornices.
Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet.>Stay well back from cornices.>Cornices become weak with daytime heating, so travel early on exposed slopes.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 4