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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 20th, 2012–Feb 22nd, 2012
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Northwest Coastal.

Confidence

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Tuesday: New snow accumulations up to 35cm overnight Monday throughout the day on Tuesday. Ridgetop winds 45-70km/hr from the West. Freezing levels near 1000m. Wednesday: Snow amounts 10-15cm. Ridgetop winds 45-55km/hr from the NW. Treeline temperatures near -6. Thursday: Mainly dry. Freezing levels will lower to valley bottom in the morning, then spike near 400m in the afternoon.

Avalanche Summary

Reports of natural sluffing on steep terrain features. One size 1 skier triggered avalanche was reported on Sunday. This occurred on a SW aspect @ 1800m from a convex , wind loaded feature. With forecast wind and snow, avalanche activity may increase.

Snowpack Summary

The last week has seen dribs and drabs of snowfall with light winds in most areas. The recently fallen snow sits over a strong melt freeze crust that exists below 1000m on all aspects and over wind-pressed powder on shaded alpine features. Sandwiched between the newer snow and the aforementioned older surfaces may be a buried surface hoar layer at treeline and below. This surface hoar layer seems most prevalent in protected inland areas. Where it exists, we expect to see gradually increasing reactivity in the surface hoar interface with loading and slab development forecast for this week. Check out our Forecaster's Blog for some insight on incremental loading. The mid and lower snowpack is generally well settled and strong.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Moderate to strong winds combined with new snowfall will create new and reactive wind slabs on lee terrain. Expect wind slab development to occur throughout the forecast period.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 5

Storm Slabs

With forecast snow new storm slabs will develop. These may be touchy, and could be destructive.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 5