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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 26th, 2015–Jan 27th, 2015
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

Record breaking temperatures are expected today, with the sun coming out to intensify the effect of the warming. This rapid transition to springlike conditions will mean more large natural activity.

Weather Forecast

Record breaking warm temperatures are expected today with freezing levels going up to mountain top.  The sunshine will intensify the warming effect on the snowpack. 

Snowpack Summary

Expect springlike conditions. The top 20-40cm of snow is moist to wet. Up to 15mm of rain in the last two days has added to the load above the Jan15 weak layer down 60-90cm.   The Dec 17 surface hoar/ crust complex is down 130-180cm.

Avalanche Summary

Yesterday a natural cycle with warm temperatures and rain; numerous avalanches up to Size 3 in highway corridor, some gouging to ground at low elevation and loose avalanches triggering slabs. A back country report from a low elevation Size 2 natural avalanche 15m wide, 200m long, 50-60cm deep, in the Asulkan area close to the Abbott slide path.

Confidence

Freezing levels are uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

We have up to 15mm or rain and 40cm of recent storm snow with very mild temperatures at all elevations.
Minimize exposure to avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.Minimize exposure to sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 3

Persistent Slabs

Mid January surface hoar layer is now buried 60-100cm deep. This layer is becoming more reactive with the current warm conditions and rain we are receiving.
Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 4

Loose Wet

Up to 15mm of rain so far and currently 0 degrees at 2000m. Loose avalanches are triggering slabs on deeper instabilities and gouging to ground when they run into tree line.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3