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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 13th, 2014–Dec 14th, 2014
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Glacier.

The storm has ended and temperatures are slowly cooling. The sun is expected to shine, the incoming solar radiation could be strong enough to trigger storm instabilities or cornices.

Weather Forecast

A high pressure ridge will keep the interior dry, cool and mostly clear for the next few days. Small disturbances will pass through the region but accumulation will be minimal. Winds are forecast to be light from the south.

Snowpack Summary

Cooler temperatures have tightened up the snowpack near the surface forming a crust with moist snow underneath it to ~2100m. Above 2000m is up to ~25cm of recent storm storm snow. Snowpack tests yesterday produced resistant planar results within the top 50cm. The Nov persistent weak layers are down ~100 and ~120cm.

Avalanche Summary

Avalanche control within the highway corridor west of the Rogers Pass summit yesterday produced mainly avalanches size 2.5 and up to size 3.0 showing wide propagation on the Nov 9 layer. Could not see all the results due to limited visibility. A backcountry natural avalanche cycle from a 2-3days ago from rain and warm temperatures is expected.

Confidence

Due to the quality of field observations

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm snow layers up in the alpine are still suspect. We had 25cm of heavy snow over Dec 5 weak layer with strong winds. Some sunshine and the weight of a rider could be enough to trigger an avalanche.
Avoid freshly wind loaded features.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3

Persistent Slabs

Big triggers like a cornice fall is capable of initiating this layer which would produce a very large avalanche as it would encompass the entire snowpack. Watch your exposure to overhead hazard like cornices when the sun comes out.
Cornices become weak with daytime heating.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely

Expected Size: 2 - 3