Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 4th, 2022 4:00PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Storm Slabs, Persistent Slabs and Loose Dry.

Jonas Hoke,

Glacier.

At the time of writing, natural activity has been limited to a few large avalanches.

If avalanche slopes don't run overnight, they'll look tantalizing as it clears on Saturday afternoon, but will remain ripe for human triggering.

Summary

Weather Forecast

Unsettled weather persists as the frontal system exits our area on Saturday.

Tonight: Snow (10cm). Alpine low -9*C. Moderate, gusting extreme, West ridgetop winds

Sat: Isolated flurries. High -8*C. Light W wind

Sun: Mix of sun and cloud. Low -6*C, High -2*C. Mod SW wind

Mon: Sunny periods. Low -9*C, High -2*C. Mod SW wind

Snowpack Summary

Up to 35cm fresh storm snow by Saturday morning, combined with strong West wind, will load lees with fresh storm slabs. This makes the total 50-80cm on the drought interfaces from Jan 29th - surface hoar (5-15mm) on sheltered/shady slopes, wind effect in exposed areas, and a suncrust on solar aspects. The Dec 1 crust/facet combo is down 1.5-2.5m.

Avalanche Summary

With only 10cm and mod winds, there were a few large avalanches above the Highway today.

Weds: control in Cougar Corner and Abott produced several size 2 slab avalanches.

Tues: a crew easily ski cut sz 1-1.5 slab avalanches on Northerly slopes.

Mon: widespread natural activity occurred at all elevations - storm slabs failing on the Jan 29th layr.

Confidence

Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Problems

Storm Slabs

New snow fell as low density powder at the start of the storm, and became stiffer as the winds and temperatures increased. This is a perfect recipe for storm slabs.

The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.
If triggered the storm/wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2.5

Persistent Slabs

The Jan 29th interface is buried up to 80cm deep - and is likely to trigger on open slopes without previous activity.

New snow is making it difficult to assess which slopes have avalanched, avoid avalanche terrain unless you have this knowledge.

Be aware of the potential for wide propagations.
Convex features and steep unsupported slopes will be most prone to triggering.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

2 - 3

Loose Dry

Expect loose dry avalanches in steep terrain that is sheltered from the wind.

These have the potential to step/gouge down to the January 29th interface and and gain significant mass.

Be aware of party members below you that may be exposed to your sluffs.
Avoid terrain traps, such as gullies, where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Feb 5th, 2022 4:00PM