Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Glacier.
Widespread wind effect in the alpine is making for fast travel, but challenging skiing in places.
Exercise caution as you transition through treeline, especially pushing into terrain that's off the beaten path, where the surface hoar may be preserved.
Weather Forecast
A ridge of high pressure for the weekend gives mostly sunny skies and warm daytime temps.
Tonight: Clear periods. Alpine Low -6*C. Ridgetop winds light West.
Saturday: Mainly sunny. High -1*C. Freezing level (Fzl) 1700 m. Light W wind.
Sun: Mainly sunny. Low -3*C, High -1*C. Alpine temp inversion.
Mon: Flurries (5cm). Low -8*C, High -4*C. Fzl 1300m.
Snowpack Summary
Extreme South winds have created widespread wind effect, and scoured exposed slopes back to previous firm surfaces.
Warm temps/rain has created a crust into the alpine on solar aspects, and on all aspects below 1650m.
The Jan 29th SH layer is buried ~50-80cm, is 5-15mm in size depending aspect and elevation, and remains reactive in isolated areas.
Avalanche Summary
There were a few size 2-2.5 avalanches triggered by warming in the highway corridor and in the backcountry on Thursday.
There were near daily reports of skier triggered avalanches this week, several confirmed to have failed on the Jan 29 Surface Hoar...
The Hourglass
Bonney Moraines - MIN, MIN, MCR, and an additional Sz 1.5 with a partial burial
Confidence
Avalanche Problems
Persistent Slabs
This has become a low probability high consequence problem - triggering remains possible on treeline slopes that; were not heavily skied, or beaten up by the wind and sun prior to the 29th; or haven't already had an avalanche on this layer.
- Ski cutting is not an effective way to manage a layer buried this deeply.
- Whumpfing, shooting cracks and recent avalanches are all strong inicators of unstable snowpack.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.
Elevations: Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1.5 - 3
Wind Slabs
Extreme south/southwest winds have left isolated pockets of wind slabs at upper elevations.
Windslabs may be found lower on the slope and in more sheltered locations than usual.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1.5
Loose Wet
Watch for loose snow avalanches on solar aspects during the heat of the day.
- Use extra caution on solar slopes if the snow is moist or wet.
- Avoid terrain traps, such as gullies, where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.
Aspects: South, South West, West.
Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.
Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1.5