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Avalanche Forecast

Feb 26th, 2022–Feb 27th, 2022
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be high
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be high
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: South Coast.

Significative storm slabs will continue to develop throughout the day. It is a good day to make conservative choices and stick to simple, safe and non-avalanche terrain.

Confidence

High - We are confident the likelihood of avalanche will increase with the arrival of the forecast weather.

Weather Forecast

The arrival of a Pacific frontal system marks the change to a wetter weather pattern.  

SATURDAY NIGHT: Snow, heavy at times, 35-50 cm, 40-60 km/h southerly wind, treeline low temperature -1 C, freezing level at 1000 m.

SUNDAY: Snow, 20-25 cm, 30-50 km/h southwesterly wind, treeline high temperature +1 C, freezing level at 1100 m.

MONDAY: Rain, heavy at times, 40-50 mm, 40-60 km/h southwesterly wind, treeline high temperature +4 C, freezing level at 1900 m.

TUESDAY: Periods of rain, 15-20 mm, 40-60 km/h southwesterly wind, treeline high temperature +3 C, freezing level at 1500 m.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche have been reported on Friday.

Snowpack Summary

Storm snow is covering a variety of surfaces including the widespread mid-February crust, wind affected snow and pockets of wind slab in exposed high elevation terrain, a suncrust on solar aspects, low density facetted snow on northerly slopes and spotty surface hoar in very sheltered lower elevations. It is almost certain that all this new snow will not bond to the older surfaces.

The mid-February crust is down around 25-50 cm and exists on all aspects and elevations. Observations are suggesting that it is bonding well surrounding snow but large loads such as heavy snowfalls or rain and cornice falls could wake up this layer and produce very large avalanches.

The late-January melt-freeze crust is now down around 80 cm and seems to be well bonded to the surrounding snow. The middle and lower snowpack are considered well settled and strong.

Terrain and Travel

  • Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.
  • As the storm slab problem gets trickier, the easy solution is to choose more conservative terrain.
  • Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
  • Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy snowfall.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Significative storm slabs will continue to develop throughout the day. It is almost certain that this new snow will not bond to the variety of older surfaces and will produce a natural avalanche cycle. It is a good day to make conservative choices and stick to simple and safe terrain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 3