Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

SUNDAY: Mix of sun, cloud and isolated flurries / Light to moderate southwest wind / Alpine temperature -10 MONDAY: Mix of sun, cloud and isolated flurries / Light to moderate west wind / Alpine temperature -10 TUESDAY: Mix of sun, cloud and isolated flurries / Light west wind / Alpine temperature -6 NOTE: The convective flurries which are common during this time of year can result in widely varying snowfall amounts throughout a region. These spring squalls routinely drop 20+ cm of snow in one valley while the adjacent drainage remains dry. For this reason, the distribution of avalanche problems associated with new snow, such as wind slabs, can vary greatly within a region.

Thursday and Friday's reports focus on natural wind and storm slab avalanches size 2-2.5 at treeline and in the alpine on all aspects. Additionally there were also reports of skier triggered wind and storm slab avalanches to size 1.5 as well as a remotely triggered size 1.5 persistent slab avalanche on a northwest aspect at 1300m. Deep persistent avalanche activity has become less frequent over the past week.

An additional 20-40cm of new snow fell Thursday through Friday, bringing the storm snow total this week to 50 to 80cm. This storm snow has been redistributed into localized wind slabs. It covers old surfaces including faceted powder, a sun crust on solar aspects, and surface hoar on shady slopes. Around 70 to 100cm below the surface there's a layer buried mid-February that's a sun crust on solar aspects and spotty surface hoar on sheltered slopes. This layer looks most concerning on solar aspects where it's associated with with small facets or surface hoar. There are several deeper layers that have shown signs of improving but still remain suspect as low probability to trigger yet will result as a high consequence avalanche if triggered. We are talking about surface hoar layer buried back in December and January. Near the base of the snowpack is a November crust combined with loose sugary snow. These layers may "wake-up" with strong inputs such as sustained warming, sustained snowfall, large triggers (e.g. cornice fall, smaller avalanches coming down from above); human triggering is also possible in shallow, rocky terrain.