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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 1st, 2018–Jan 2nd, 2018
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

A trending temperature inversion may see a change in storm slab development.  Watch for signs of instability such as whumphing, cracking and new natural avalanche activity.

Weather Forecast

A temperature inversion will see alpine highs up to -5C with a mix of sun and cloud today. Warming will continue into Tuesday with alpine temperatures reaching zero degrees. Wednesday freezing level should reach 1700m with alpine temps reaching zero degrees.

Snowpack Summary

25cm of low density storm snow now buries the Dec 27 surface hoar/ facet layer. The Dec 15 surface hoar/sun crust layer, which is widespread at treeline, is buried down 60cms. An inversion warming trend could mark a change in storm slab formation. Expect to find pockets of wind slab in the alpine and open areas at tree line.

Avalanche Summary

A natural avalanche cycle occurred on Dec 30 with numerous loose dry and storm slab avalanches up to sz 3.0, from steep, confined terrain. Dec 31, 4 slides to size 2.0 were observed in the hwy corridor. Be aware of naturals from above especially while traveling in confined valley bottoms as avalanches have the potential to reach into run-out zones.

Confidence

Due to the number of field observations

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

The 25cms of recent storm snow along with the available fetch and recent strong winds will have created pockets of slab on lee slopes. Based on observations Dec 30, avalanches have the potential to reach out into runout zones.
If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.Watch for signs of instability such as whumpfing, or cracking.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

The December 15 surface hoar layer is widespread around treeline and buried 60cm. Cold temps have kept the slab from gaining cohesion, but a warming trend may make it more reactive especially on steep unsupported and/or wind affected terrain.
Watch for signs of instability such as whumpfing, or cracking. Carefully evaluate big terrain features by digging and testing on adjacent, safe slopes.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3