Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Friday

Most of BC finds itself under the influence of a massive arctic high-pressure system that has enveloped the province in an unseasonably cold, dry arctic air mass. In contrast, a milder, moisture-laden stream of air has taken aim at southwestern BC. These two air masses are set to clash over southern BC through Friday night, producing potentially heavy snowfall along the south coast before expected clearing begins on Saturday.THURSDAY NIGHT: Freezing level around 1200 m, moderate west wind, 10 to 30 cm of moist snow possible. FRIDAY: Overcast, freezing level around 1200 m, light southwest wind, 1 to 5 cm of snow possible. FRIDAY NIGHT: Freezing level beginning at about 1200 m, lowering through the night to valley bottom. 25 to 40 cm of snow possible. SATURDAY: Skies clearing throughout the day, freezing level at valley bottom, light NW wind, no snow expected.SUNDAY: Clear skies, freezing level at valley bottom, light variable wind, no snow expected.

On Thursday skiers intentionally triggered avalanches on northwest trough southeast facing slopes to size 1.5. Crowns averaged 20 to 30 cm in depth and up to 90 m in width. Heavy snowfall and wind Thursday night through Friday night is expected to continue to drive a natural avalanche cycle.

30 to 50 cm of storm snow has fallen as of Thursday afternoon. The new snow is reportedly upside down, meaning that wet heavy snow sits over light fluffy (lower density) snow. The storm snow covers a medley of old surfaces which include stubborn old wind slabs and wind scoured crusts in the alpine, and soft unconsolidated snow in sheltered areas at treeline and below.50 to 80 cm below the surface you'll likely find a couple of melt-freeze crusts which were buried mid-December. These layers may come to life as continued snowfall adds to the load. This would be most likely to occur in areas where loose facets exist above the crust.Below this, the snowpack is thought to be strong and well settled. The snowpack depth is about 150 cm at 1000 m, with many early season hazards present at lower elevations.