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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 9th, 2018–Mar 10th, 2018
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

Storm slabs are running naturally this morning with the help of strong winds. Expect another pulse of avalanche activity when the afternoon sun comes out.

Weather Forecast

Scraps of an upper cold front give isolated flurries today with trace amounts of precipitation. Increasing sunshine this afternoon as the front is replaced with a ridge of high pressure and warming temperatures. Freezing levels at 1100m. Expect 20km/h westerly winds with the occasional strong gust. Freezing levels climb to 2500m early next week.

Snowpack Summary

15cm of new snow arrived overnight with moderate to strong southerly winds. This sits atop a reactive storm layer that is 30-40cm deep. Expect to see recent cornice growth and additional wind loading on lee aspects. A crust buried 60cm is present on steep solar aspects. Deep persistent weak layers are dormant and buried over 1.5m.

Avalanche Summary

We are in the middle of a natural avalanche cycle. Activity peaked this morning with strong southerly winds transporting the new snow that fell last night. Several size 2.5 to 3.0 natural avalanches were observed in the highway corridor east of Rogers Pass.

Confidence

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

New snow and southerly winds have created reactive storm slabs. Slabs will be well-formed on lee features when wind has contributed to loading. These slabs are touchy and sensitive to human triggered loads as well as natural inputs like wind and sun.
Minimize exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1.5 - 3

Persistent Slabs

Sun crusts are buried 30-60 cm on steep solar aspects. This interface provides a smooth bed surface and may contribute to larger than expected avalanches. It is possible for storm snow avalanches to trigger this lingering problem.
Minimize exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.If triggered the storm slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3