Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Dec 5th, 2017 3:27PM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Loose Wet and Storm Slabs.

mgrist, Avalanche Canada

South Coast.

Warm temperatures and sun cause unstable snow, especially in the afternoon. If the snow is moist or mushy, dial back your terrain selection and avoid cliffs, gullies and steep slopes with trees.

Summary

Confidence

High - The weather pattern is stable

Weather Forecast

We're looking at fine weather for the foreseeable future. Significant warming continues on Wednesday afternoon, with temperatures forecast to hit double digits at mountaintop!!!Wednesday: Sunny and warm. Light northerly winds. Freezing levels 3300m. Alpine high temperatures to +11 Celsius!Thursday: Sunny and warm. Light northerly winds. Freezing levels 3200m. Alpine high temperatures to +11 Celsius!Friday: Mainly sunny with some cloudy periods. Light northerly winds. Freezing levels 3400m.

Avalanche Summary

On Sunday we had a report of a Size 1.5 natural wind slab avalanche by Sky Pilot Mountain on a northerly aspect near 1500m. See here for the MIN report. A significant travel hazard on Wednesday may be snow falling off heavily laden trees (aka tree bombs) as the freezing level heads towards 3300m and temperatures keep rising.

Snowpack Summary

Late last week through to Saturday we saw significant storm snow totals, on the order of 80-100cm in the North Shore mountains. That said, all the new snow appears to be bonding well to a crust (down 80-100cm at tree line elevations) and stabilizing rapidly. Travel has improved below tree line, but there are still open creeks, alder and other early season hazards. Expect snow depths of around 60 cm at 800 m and around 200 cm at 1200 m.

Problems

Loose Wet

Conditions will be more like spring than winter this week. Surface snow layers can weaken when hit by the sun. Minimize your exposure to terrain traps - even small sluffs can push you into dangerous terrain.

Use caution above cliffs and terrain traps where small avalanches may have severe consequences.Use extra caution on sunny slopes or if the snow is moist or wet.

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Storm Slabs

Recent snow and wind resulted in slab avalanche conditions in steep and/or exposed terrain at the highest elevations. Be careful around broad open slopes and steep terrain, especially where you can feel the November 26th crust with your ski pole.

Avoid steep convex slopes.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Dec 6th, 2017 2:00PM