Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Thursday

Warm weather is forecast to continue throughout the night with a freezing level around 3000m.  Wet flurries totalling almost 40cm is forecast over the next 24hrs with strong winds.  Thursday evening temperatures will then start to cool down.  Thursday will be a good day to avoid all avalanche terrain.

A few loose wet slides up to sz 1 and a few Slab avalanches up to sz 2 were observed.  The majority of these slides were failing at treeline and alpine areas, 50-80cm deep and running 100-200m.  The heat and solar input seemed to be the big trigger and we suspect that the halloween crust was the main bed surface for most of these avalanches.

Warm temps and strong winds were the primary driver in terms of snowpack change on Wednesday.  Freezing levels were up to 2700m and settlement was rapid within the snowpack.  Hard windslabs dominate the alpine region that are failing on the Halloween crust down 50-80cm.  Most windward slopes are stripped bare by these punishing winds.  Thin weak areas surrounding the len's of hard slabs are the areas where it will be easiest to trigger a weakness in the facet layer underlying the Halloween crust.  Gullies, ridgelines and lee crossloaded features are all locations where it will be easiest to trigger this problem.  Loose wet slides will also be a concern on thursday as more precipitation is expected and a large portion of that will come as rain and wet snow. Thursday will be a good day to avoid avalanche terrain.