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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 14th, 2020–Feb 15th, 2020
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: South Coast.

New snow and wind are developing storm slabs. The most reactive deposits will be around ridgetops and wind-loaded areas.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the track & intensity of the incoming weather system.

Weather Forecast

FRIDAY NIGHT: Snow, 15-20 cm. Alpine low temperature -3 C. West-southwest wind 25-40 km/hr. Freezing level 600 m.

SATURDAY: Flurries, 5-15 cm. Alpine high temperature 0 C. Southwest wind 25 gusting to 50 km/hr. Freezing level rising to 1200 m.

SUNDAY: Cloudy with isolated flurries. Alpine high temperature -3 C. Northwest wind 15 gusting to 60 km/hr. Freezing level 600 m.

MONDAY: Mix of sun and cloud. Alpine high temperature -4 C. West wind 15-25 km/hr. Freezing level 600 m.

Avalanche Summary

A small skier triggered slab avalanche on the rain crust was reported a week ago on Saturday (see this MIN report). The bond at this interface appears to be strengthening over time.

Snowpack Summary

Snowfall beginning Friday night is accumulating over a variety of wind affected surfaces in the alpine, dense, well settled snow at lower elevations, and a sun crust on solar aspects. Wind and rising temperatures through Saturday will encourage slab development within the new snow.

A thick rain crust sits 40-50 cm below the surface. The snowpack below consists of moist to wet snow and is well settled. Snowpack depths are in the range of 200-250 cm around the peaks of the North Shore mountains (1400 m), tapering quickly with elevation to almost nothing below 1000 m.

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for fresh storm slabs building throughout the day.
  • Be carefull around freshly wind loaded features.
  • Recent wind has varied in direction so watch for wind slabs on all aspects.
  • Watch for avalanche hazard to increase throughout the day.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Snowfall beginning Friday night is expected to accumulate with south-southwesterly winds. Expect slabs to increase in reactivity through Saturday with the touchiest deposits in wind-loaded areas.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2