Avalanche Forecast

Low - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations. Uncertainty is due to the timing or intensity of solar radiation and its effect on the snowpack. Uncertainty is due to whether buried persistent weak layers become active, triggering avalanches, with the arrival of the forecast weather.

The forecast period is filled with plenty of sun and wind for the foreseeable future.

MONDAY NIGHT: Light to moderate northwest wind, freezing level at valley bottom, no significant precipitation expected.

TUESDAY: Scattered cloud cover at dawn clearing to just a few clouds in the afternoon, moderate northwest wind, freezing level at valley bottom, no significant precipitation expected.

WEDNESDAY: Clear skies, moderate southwest wind, freezing level rising to about 1300 m, no significant precipitation expected.

THURSDAY: Clear skies at dawn with some cloud building in the afternoon, strong southwest wind, freezing level rising to about 1300 m, no significant precipitation expected.

Surprisingly little avalanche activity has been reported. On Sunday explosive control work produced small avalanches running in the upper 20 cm of storm snow.

The weekend storm added 10 to 25 cm of snow to the phenomenal snowfall last week where the wed/thur/fri storm produced 50 (Kakwa) to 100 (Torpy) cm of storm snow under mild temperatures and moderate wind from the south, southwest and southeast. Most of the observations we're seeing suggest that the copious amount of storm snow arrived warm and is settling well in the cooler recent temperatures. The storm snow reportedly has very little slab property, but we're short on observations from more wind effected terrain. This MIN from the Renshaw on Saturday really tells the story.

Last week easy sudden planar shears and widespread storm slabs were observed. The presence of buried surface hoar about 40 to 60 cm below the surface has been confirmed in the Pine Pass, Torpy & Renshaw zones, it may be more widespread throughout the region too. 

Below all the recent storm snow there is a thin rain crust from the warm, wet storm on Feb 01. This rain crust has been reported to exist up to treeline elevations around 1700 m. Initially this layer was described as reactive and was the focus of a number of avalanches but no recent activity involving this crust has been reported.

Deep in the the mid-pack there may still be a layer of surface hoar buried in late December. It's gaining strength, but should remain a concern since snowpack tests still demonstrate this layer has the potential to slide, albeit in isolated areas and/or with very large triggers.

• Avoid exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes, especially when the solar radiation is strong.
• Avoid freshly wind loaded features, especially near ridge crests, roll-overs and in steep terrain.
• Cornice failure may trigger large avalanches.
• Be aware of the potential for remote triggering and large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.