Avalanche Forecast
Regions: South Columbia.
Confidence
Moderate - Wind speed and direction is uncertain on Friday
Weather Forecast
Overnight: 5-15 cm of new snow with moderate southwest winds and freezing down to 800 metres. Friday: Overcast with another 5-8 cm of snow combined with moderate west winds and daytime freezing up to 1600 metres. Saturday: Overcast with flurries and moderate west winds and daytime freezing up to 1500 metres. Sunday: Mostly sunny with light winds and daytime freezing up to 1900 metres.
Avalanche Summary
Thin storm and wind slab avalanches were reported up to size 1.5 early in the storm on Wednesday. One deep persistent slab avalanche size 3.0 was reported on Tuesday from the Selkirks, there was no information regarding aspect or elevation. Natural cornice falls were reported up to size 3.0 on Monday.
Snowpack Summary
The new storm slab is now 20-30 cm deep, and the snow arrived with east or southeast winds. The wind is forecast to change to the west, and this may result in reverse loading. This new now is sitting on the 30-50 cm of recent snow from the past week. The new and recent snow are covering a mix of old surfaces, including several crusts on all aspects at treeline and below, and on solar aspects in the alpine. Cornices continue to be reported to be large and fragile, and the have released naturally on a regular basis. The February weak layers are now down about 170-220 cm and the deep mid-December facet layer and November rain crust both still linger near the bottom of the snowpack. These deep weak layers produced large avalanches with cornice falls and other heavy triggers in late March and early April. Yet another deep release was reported in the region on Saturday. This activity, although growing more sporadic, is keeping these layers an ongoing concern. They may be more likely to fail on southerly aspects during periods of strong solar radiation.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 3
Cornices
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 2 - 3
Persistent Slabs
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Unlikely
Expected Size: 2 - 4